In January, home prices increased by 11.2% year-over-year and by 10.4% since the prior month, according to the most recent S&P CoreLogic/Case-Shiller Indices. Year-over-year, the 10-City Composite increased 10.9%, while the 20-City Composite increased 11.1%. All cities in the 20-City Composite reported higher price increases for the year ending January 2021 compared to the year ending December 2020.
The following cities experienced the highest YoY gains: Phoenix (+15.8%), Seattle (14.3%) and San Diego (14.2%).
The complete data for the 20 markets measured by S&P:
Las Vegas, Nev.
Los Angeles, Calif.
New York, N.Y.
San Diego, Calif.
San Francisco, Calif.
What the Industry Is Saying:
“January’s performance is particularly impressive in historical context. The National Composite’s 11.2% gain is the highest recorded since February 2006, just one month shy of 15 years ago. In more than 30 years of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data, January’s year-over-year change is comfortably in the top decile. That strength is reflected across all 20 cities. January’s price gains in every city are above that city’s median level, and rank in the top quartile of all reports in 18 cities.
“January’s data remain consistent with the view that COVID has encouraged potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes. This demand may represent buyers who accelerated purchases that would have happened anyway over the next several years. Alternatively, there may have been a secular change in preferences, leading to a shift in the demand curve for housing. Future data will be required to analyze this question.
“Although prices were strongest in the West (+11.7%), gains were impressive in every region.” — Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices
“Home prices continued to power ahead, with the Case-Shiller price index rising 11.2%, the fastest appreciation since 2006. The heated market demand combined with a record-low supply have brought wealth gains for homeowners but affordability challenges for first-time buyers. Total housing wealth gain is now estimated to have risen by $3.4 trillion over the past 12 months to January or over $30,000 on average per homeowner.
“This repeat price index is better at capturing the true appreciation compared to rises in the median home price, which can be influenced by active upper-end market sales, as is happening today. The median price nonetheless measures the dollar volume of transactions and has proven to be an early indictor about the direction of the market. For example, the median price started to fall in 2006, which was then followed by subsequent Case-Shiller price declines in 2007. So far in 2021, the median price rose by 15% year-to-date compared to last year, implying no let-up in home prices.
“More supply is clearly needed to tame the price growth. Any hindrance to homebuilding therefore will mean a shrinking of the middle class, as homeownership will become increasingly more difficult to achieve.” — Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS®