For the month of February, 3% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency, a 0.2 percentage point increase compared with last month, but a 0.4 percentage point decrease compared with 3.4% last year, according to a new report from CoreLogic.
According to CoreLogic’s monthly Loan Performance Insights Report, in February 2023, the U.S. delinquency and transition rates, and their year-over-year changes, were as follows:
- Early-stage delinquencies (30 to 59 days past due): 1.4%, unchanged from last year and up from 1.3% last month.
- Adverse delinquency (60 to 89 days past due): 0.4%, unchanged from last year.
- Serious delinquency (90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure): 1.2%, down from 1.7% last year and a high of 4.3% in August 2020.
- Foreclosure inventory rate (the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process): 0.3%, up from 0.2% last year.
- Transition rate (the share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due): 0.7%, down from 0.8% last year.
State and metro takeaways:
- No state posted an annual increase in overall delinquency rates. The states with the largest declines were New York and West Virginia (both down by 0.9 percentage points). The other states’ annual delinquency rates dropped between 0.8 and 0.1 percentage points.
- 18 metro areas posted an increase in overall delinquency rates. The top two areas for mortgage delinquency gains year over year were Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida and Punta Gorda, Florida (both up by 1.7 percentage points).
- All but four U.S. metro areas posted at least a small annual decrease in serious delinquency rates (defined as 90 days or more late on a mortgage payment).
- The metros that saw serious delinquencies increase were Cape Coral-Fort Myers; and Punta, Gorda Florida (both up by 1.3 percentage points). North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Florida; and Bloomsburg-Berwick, Pennsylvania followed (both up by 0.1 percentage point).
Major takeaway:
“The national mortgage delinquency rate has barely changed year over year since the spring of 2022, indicating a fairly stable economy in which most borrowers are able to pay their mortgages on time,” said the author of the report. “Similarly, the U.S. foreclosure rate has held steady at 0.3% for a year. And while the unemployment rate remained near a pre-pandemic low in March, it is possible that mortgage delinquency rates could begin to creep up later this year, as the impact of recent job losses begin to affect the numbers several months later.”
“Despite a small monthly increase in the share of mortgage payments that were one month late in February, early-stage delinquencies remained unchanged year over year,” said Molly Boesel, principal economist at CoreLogic. “February’s early-stage delinquency rate was historically low and primarily driven by a strong job market. However, the possibility of a recession that would raise the U.S. unemployment rate could slightly erode the current strong mortgage performance situation in the coming months.”
For the full report, click here.
