In October, home prices rose 3.3 percent year-over-year, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic/Case-Shiller Indices, bringing them a milestone 15 percent-plus higher than their last peak, in July 2006.
The complete data for the 20 markets measured by S&P:
Atlanta, Ga.
October/September: 0.4%
Year-Over-Year: 4.2%
Boston, Mass.
October/September: 0%
Year-Over-Year: 3.4%
Charlotte, N.C.
October/September: 0.4%
Year-Over-Year: 4.8%
Chicago, Ill.
October/September: -0.4%
Year-Over-Year: 0.5%
Cleveland, Ohio
October/September: -0.5%
Year-Over-Year: 3.3%
Dallas, Texas
October/September: -0.1%
Year-Over-Year: 2.9%
Denver, Colo.
October/September: 0%
Year-Over-Year: 3.3%
Detroit, Mich.
October/September: -0.5%
Year-Over-Year: 3.1%
Las Vegas, Nev.
October/September: -0.2%
Year-Over-Year: 2.3%
Los Angeles, Calif.
October/September: 0.4%
Year-Over-Year: 2%
Miami, Fla.
October/September: 0.3%
Year-Over-Year: 3.3%
Minneapolis, Minn.
October/September: -0.2%
Year-Over-Year: 4.2%
New York, N.Y.
October/September: 0.3%
Year-Over-Year: 0.8%
Phoenix, Ariz.
October/September: 0.5%
Year-Over-Year: 5.8%
Portland, Ore.
October/September: -0.5%
Year-Over-Year: 2.7%
San Diego, Calif.
October/September: -0.2%
Year-Over-Year: 2.9%
San Francisco, Calif.
October/September: -0.4%
Year-Over-Year: -0.4%
Seattle, Wash.
October/September: -0.3%
Year-Over-Year: 2.5%
Tampa, Fla.
October/September: 0.6%
Year-Over-Year: 4.9%
Washington, D.C.
October/September: 0.3%
Year-Over-Year: 3%
“With October’s 3.3 percent increase in the national composite index, home prices are currently more than 15 percent above the pre-financial crisis peak reached July 2006,” Craig J. Lazzara, of the S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement. “As was the case last month, after a long period of decelerating price increases, the national, 10-city and 20-city composites all rose at a modestly faster rate in October compared to September. This stability was broad-based, reflecting data in 12 of 20 cities.
However, “it is, of course, still too soon to say whether this marks an end to the deceleration or is merely a pause in the longer-term trend,” cautioned Lazzara.
Heading into 2020, appreciation could temper, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of REALTORS®, if builders expand inventory options.
“Demand remains strong and supply is lacking,” says Yun. “Moreover, faster price appreciation in warmer Southern states reflect the ongoing migratory trend of people moving out of expensive regions of the country to more affordable parts. In 2020, more home-building activity and consequent growth in supply should tame down home price gains. That’s a healthy development for potential homebuyers. Southern cities should once again do better than most other markets.”
Additionally, although buyers face increasing prices, they also benefit from rising values, Bill Banfield, executive vice president of Capital Markets at Quicken Loans, points out.
“The silver lining to this month’s increase in home price is homebuyers will see continued appreciating value in their home after the transaction, even though the high price may not have been welcome initially,” Banfield says. “The moderately rising home prices of late 2019 suggest the economy is approaching a point where prices are beneficial for both buyers and sellers. However, the strain of low inventories at most price points suggests prices will continue to rise into the foreseeable future.”
At the local scale, home prices varied.
“Price trends varied across cities depending in part on affordability constraints and population growth pressures,” Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic, says. “High-cost markets, where the lack of affordable housing remains a critical issue, had the largest deceleration in price growth from one year ago, with prices declining in San Francisco on an annual basis for the third month in a row. Of the cities in the composite index, Phoenix and Tampa top the list of annual appreciation, reflecting rising demand from strong population growth in Arizona and Florida.”
Hello, is this 15% increase since to peak in 2006 inflation adjusted?
15% over the 2006 peak means simply that (if there were no trough), the rate of increase from that year forward would have been less than 1% per year, compounded.