Hurricane Ian, a category 4 hurricane that slammed Florida’s Gulf Coast overnight, is expected to be one of the costliest storms in U.S. history, as predicted by a report from CoreLogic released earlier this week.
According to CoreLogic’s report, along the Florida Gulf Coast a total of 1,044,412 single-family and multifamily homes were at potential risk of storm surge damage, with a reconstruction cost value (RCV) of about $258.3 billion. Additionally, 7,201,572 single- and multifamily residences with a combined total RCV of $1.6 trillion are within the “moderate” and “high” flash flood risk bands.
Key highlights:
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater is the most at risk for Storm surge damages under a category 4 storm, with 397,090 homes at risk and a projected RCV of $90.6 billion.
- Following this area are both North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton and Cape Coral-Fort Myers, having 233,286 homes at risk with an RCV of $58 billion, and 226,785 homes at risk with an RCV of $57.1 billion respectively.
- Naples-Marco Island is less at risk but still has large projected damages, with 125,294 homes at risk with an RCV of $36.1 billion.
- The only area with less than 100,000 homes at risk is Punta Gorda, with 61,957 homes at risk with an RCV of $16.5 billion.
- The National Hurricane Center currently forecasts that most of the state is at moderate (40%) or higher risk of flash flood risk due to heavy rainfall.
- Tampa Bay and Orlando have the highest risk of flash flooding, with a 70% chance.
- As of Sept. 28, five-day rainfall depths of up to 20 inches are expected across portions of the state.
Major takeaway:
“Hurricane Ian has all the ingredients you need for a bad storm surge event,” said Dr. Tom Jeffery, senior hazard scientist at CoreLogic. “Due to Hurricane Ian’s slower speed and rapid intensification in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the threat of a widening wind field bringing damaging storm surge increases each day. Many homes along Florida’s western coast are at risk of storm surge inundation regardless of where the storm makes landfall, and even more homeowners will contend with heavy rainfall and hurricane-force winds throughout midweek.”
Hurricane Ian touched down in Florida on Wednesday, and Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency.
Editor’s Note: The RCV figures assume 100% destruction of all at-risk homes and are not a representation of expected damages.
For the full storm surge report, click here. For the full flash flooding report, click here.
