The latest housing risk report from ATTOM Data for the second quarter of 2025 reveals that southern states dominate. Risk was measured by affordability, serious underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment rates by county using data from ATTOM and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Out of the 50 highest risk markets, 14 were counties in California, seven in Florida, five in New Jersey and four were in Louisiana, according to the report. Out of the 579 counties examined, 19%—or 111 of them—would have had to spend at least half of their salary to purchase and maintain a home.
The report explains that financial pressures continued to grow for homeowners in the second quarter. Home prices are rising to record highs while mortgage rates, wages and unemployment rates are holding steady.
Chief Executive Officer for ATTOM, Rob Barber, said, “This summer’s home prices were certainly eye-catching, but there are many factors that contribute to the health of a local housing market. Our index takes into account key indicators beyond just sales price to create a barometer that helps folks better understand where their market is headed.”
The top five riskiest counties according to the report were:
- Charlotte County, Florida
- Humboldt County, California
- Shasta County, California
- Butte County, California
- Cumberland County, New Jersey
“While the median home sales price and home affordability measures varied between these counties, all five had unemployment rates above June’s non-seasonally adjusted national average of 4.36%. They also all had ratios of at least one in every 766 homes in the county in foreclosure,” the report states.
In many of the riskiest counties, a down payment, mortgage payments and other expenses could cost homeowners more than an entire year’s worth of their pay. Nationally it’s expected to cost just over a third of their salary.
Certain areas had expenses that greatly overshadowed a typical resident’s annual wages. ATTOM researchers estimate that home expenses consumed about 120% of a typical resident’s annual wages in Marin County. In Maui, Hawaii, expenses are estimated to be 111.5% of a resident’s salary. Other metropolitan areas like Kings County, New York, have such high expenses that they take up about 109% of a homeowner’s typical salary.
Southern states lie on the extremes of both ends of the spectrum; they have the most representation in the top 50 least risky counties and the top 50 most risky counties.
In the top 50 riskiest counties, 21 were in the South and 18 in the West. But 18 of the least risky counties lie in the South as well, with 18 in the Northeast.
High home prices are affecting every aspect of the housing market. The report states that, “in the second quarter of 2025 buying and maintaining a home would have cost more than a third of the typical resident’s annualized wages in 34 out of the 50 least risky markets and 40 out of the 50 riskiest markets.”
By measuring how many homes were underwater—or the combined estimated balance of loans for said property was at least 25% greater than the home’s market value—researchers found that nationally, 2.7% of homes were considered seriously underwater.
Out of the top 10 countries with the highest underwater rates, seven of them were located in Louisiana.
The top five counties with the highest underwater rates were:
- Rapides Parish, Louisiana (17.3%)
- Calcasieu Parish, Louisiana (16.9%)
- Caddo Parish, Louisiana (14.3%)
- Tangipahoa Parish, Louisiana (14.1%)
- East Baton Rouge Parish, Louisiana (12.1%)
“There’s uncertainty about how long prices can keep going up, and what will happen with the broader economy,” Barber added. “That can be scary for owners and prospective buyers who don’t always get a full view of their market.”
The margin between the risky and non-risky areas is blurry at best. Only six out of the top 50 most favorable counties had seriously underwater home rates better than the national average of 2.7%. These counties were located in Vermont, Rhode Island, New Hampshire and New York.
For the full report, click here.
