Pending home sales saw a slight uptick in February, continuing an optimistic trend ahead of a long-awaited spring boom, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). However, this spring boom may now be delayed due to geopolitical tensions, economists warn.
NAR’s Pending Home Sales report found that sales grew 1.8% in February, an improvement from the 0.8% fall seen in January and a possible indication of spring activity yet to come. Sales were still down year-over-year by 0.8%, a bit wider of a gap than the 0.4% seen in January.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed the slight rise to a recent improvement in affordability conditions. He noted, however, that the future could be murky “if higher oil prices lead to an uptick in mortgage rates.”
While January and February have had a “resilient start,” as Realtor.com® Sr. Economic Research Analyst Hannah Jones said, “the housing market is effectively operating in two speeds.”
“Buyers in well-supplied markets are finding opportunities to negotiate, but those in high-demand corridors must still navigate a landscape defined by low inventory availability and high competition,” she continued.
Regionally, results remain mixed. Month-over-month, the Midwest (+4.6%), South (+2.7%) and West (+0.9%) all saw an increase in pendings, while the Northeast saw a decrease (-3.6%). Year-over-year, the South (+1.2%) and the West (+3.2%) saw an increase, while the Northeast (-12.1%) and the Midwest (-0.1%) saw a decrease.
“The Midwest—the most affordable region of the country—was the strongest performer in February,” noted Yun. “But the Northeast was held back by a combination of higher home prices and a shortage of supply.”
Among the 50 largest metros, notable year-over-year gains were observed in mostly warm-weather metros, scattered across the West, Midwest and South:
- San Diego, California (+13.5%)
- Jacksonville, Florida (+12.1%)
- San Jose, California (+10.6%)
- Denver, Colorado (+10.5%)
- Miami, Florida (+10%)
- Phoenix, Arizona (+9.8%)
- Sacramento, California (+9.3%)
- Kansas City, Missouri-Kansas (+8.7%)
- Austin, Texas (+8.1%)
- Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (+7.4%)
As Yun noted, there are potential complications ahead for the housing market as the economy could face headwinds from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant said that while 2026 began with much optimism for a “strong spring housing market,” the start of that spring market is now delayed, “with sellers holding off on putting their homes on the market and buyers questioning whether it is the right time for them to buy.”
“The conflict with Iran introduced a whole new set of concerns to the economy and the housing market as oil prices surged and a potential resolution of the conflict has become more uncertain,” she continued. “If the conflict is prolonged, the spring housing market could not just be delayed but be much less robust than predicted earlier this year.”
