Software development company TKI has released its quarterly nSkope Predictive Analytics Report, showing that “empty nesters” and retirees may have a significant impact on the U.S. real estate market over the next 12 months.
The report, published quarterly, aims to give real estate professionals a preview of what market trends they can expect for the next 12 months. This most recent report found that older Americans may make up a sizeable portion of those who will be listing their homes:
According to TKI, nSkope, which reviewed homes in more than 16,000 U.S. ZIP codes, utilized proprietary algorithms enhanced by artificial intelligence to analyze over 300 data points and identify patterns and correlations, correctly predicted 8.1% of all its predicted listings from December 2021-December 2022. Here is a breakdown of the most recent data:
Key findings:
- Overall, 5.7 million American homes have a probability of being listed on the market.
- Of those listings, it is estimated that the highest plurality will come from homeowners aged 45-64 with no children living at home: 10.2%.
- Following the “empty nesters,” the predicted sellers are single adults aged 35-64 (8.7%), retirees aged 65 and up (7.5%), and families with a dependent aged 18-24 living at home (6.3%).
- The top predicted markets, based on population size, were:
- Population size under 100,000: Casper, Wyoming, with 3,203 homes predicted to be listed on the market (or 7% of the total properties).
- Population size between 100,000 and 250,000: Jacksonville, North Carolina, with 9,188 properties predicted to be listed (17% of total properties).
- Population size between 250,000 and 500,000: Greeley, Colorado, with 25,249 properties predicted to be listed (6% of total properties).
- Population size between 500,000 and 750,000: Provo-Orem, Utah with 26,669 properties predicted to be listed (2% of total properties).
- Population size between 750,000 and 1 million: Colorado Springs, Colorado with 36,317 properties predicted to be listed (6% of total properties).
- Population size between 1 and 2 million: Salt Lake City, Utah with 43,686 properties predicted to be listed (1% of total properties).
- Population size between 2 and 4 million: Austin-Round Rock-
Georgetown, Texas with 103,247 properties predicted to be listed (17.2% of total properties).
- Population size of over 4 million: The Washington D.C. metro area, with 243,285 properties predicted to be listed (4% of total properties).
- From TKI’s previous reports, predicting in December 2021 which properties would be on the market in December 2022, they noted these markets were the most accurate predictions:
- Decatur, Illinois: 463 homes converted between December 2021 and December 2022 (22.9% of predicted 2,204).
- Kalamazoo-Portage, Michigan: 1,328 homes converted between December 2021 and December 2022 (17.6% of predicted 7,538).
- Jacksonville, North Carolina: 1,171 homes converted between December 2021 and December 2022 (13.1% of predicted 8,972).
- Pueblo, Colorado: 691 homes converted between December 2021 and December 2022 (10.6% of predicted 6,545).
- Colorado Springs, Colorado: 3,262 homes converted between December 2021 and December 2022 (10.2% of predicted 2,204).
- Of the 10 most accurately predicted listings for retirees, seven of the markets were located in Florida. At the top of the list was Florida retirement community The Villages, with5% of the predicted listings being converted.
The takeaway:
“With a projected slowdown in 2023 sales, it is critically important to understand the lifestyle triggers that will impact listings,” said Tom Gamble, co-founder and CEO of TKI. “Older families and Americans should not be forgotten. They make up a sizable pool of potential sellers and should be marketed to. Obviously, growing families will always be sales drivers, but the report shows that a sizable percentage of potential sellers are not in this group. They are likely not looking to move up or be in better school districts. This is especially true in numerous Florida and Arizona markets, along with places like Myrtle Beach and Santa Rosa where the older age groups are over-indexing.”
Gamble also argues why predictive analysis like TKI’s can be an asset to real estate professionals: “Most brokerages and large teams spend significant time, energy and dollars to attract sellers. But they do so blindly. Predictive analytics allows them to focus on potential clients with the highest probability of listing their home in the foreseeable future. We therefore allow marketing initiatives to be dramatically more effective and cost efficient. As competition for listings becomes exceptionally fierce, being in front of this group as early as possible should pay dividends.”
The full report is posted in the news section located in the lower third of TKI’s nSkope site, here.
