Home prices remain elevated overall, but once again continued to see depreciation, marking a significantly weak start to 2026, according to the latest data.
The January S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index saw only a 0.9% gain to kick off 2026, down from a revised 1.1% gain in December (originally 1.3%). Month-over-month, the index saw a 0.2% gain.
Notably, this is the “weakest start to a year for home prices since the early 2010s,” according to Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant.
Nicholas Godec, head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, added that January’s results “show home price gains continuing to cool,” as the “rate of appreciation has slowed materially.”
As sales have remained low and uncertainty clouds the near-term outlook, Realtor.com® Senior Economist Anthony Smith said that recent market activity reflects a “market stabilizing from a low base rather than building toward a broader rebound.”
“The lock-in effect is gradually easing as the share of mortgages at 6% or higher grows,” he continued. “However, the majority of homeowners still carry rates well below current market levels, constraining the flow of new listings and keeping resale inventory from recovering more meaningfully.”
As for the city composites, the 10-City Composite grew 1.7% year-over-year (down from 2% in December), and grew 0.2% month-over-month (down from 0.5% in December). The 20-City Composite grew 1.2% year-over-year (down from 1.4% in December), and grew 0.2% month-over-month (down from 0.5% in December).
New York City saw the highest annual gain in the 20-City Composite, rising 4.9% in January. This was followed by Chicago—last month’s leader—at 4.6%, and Cleveland at 3.6%. The smallest growth was once again seen in Tampa, posting a 2.5% annual gain.
Specifically, Godec noted that January’s results are indicative of a “market that is neither recovering nor correcting sharply,” as “monthly price changes were slightly negative before seasonal adjustment and modestly positive after.”
Looking ahead, Sturtevant said that the “outlook for the housing market remains cloudy.”
She noted that while affordability had begun to show improvement with falling mortgage rates, the Iranian conflict has reversed this progress for the time being, explaining that “higher rates and growing uncertainty are creating headwinds in the market.”
“Even with cooler demand, home prices are likely to be stable this spring due to the ongoing supply shortfall,” she continued. “However, expect significant variation across markets, with stronger price appreciation in the Northeast and Midwest where inventory remains constrained, and slower price growth and price declines in markets in the South and West where inventory has climbed.”
Smith added that a “sustained return to lower rates could help unlock more demand, but the pace of any recovery will depend heavily on whether fresh listings keep pace.”
“In markets where inventory remains tight, price growth is likely to hold up even as the national picture continues to cool,” he concluded.
