Spring Market Attempts to Bloom, Despite Cloudiness of Geopolitical Tensions

Signs of a spring bloom in the housing market are finally at hand, but the potential for that growth could be curtailed by looming geopolitical headwinds, according to the latest data.

Realtor.com®’s March 2026 Monthly Housing Trends Report found that both active and new listings grew month-over-month and year-over-year, despite rises in mortgage rates and the overall economy as the U.S. faces war with Iran. 

Breaking down the numbers, active listings grew 5.4% month-over-month and 8.1% year-over-year. New listings shot up a whopping 21.2% month-over-month, and saw a slight 0.7% increase year-over-year. Strong gains were seen in Seattle (+42.5%), Louisville (+34%) and Indianapolis (+27%), 

The national inventory level also improved in March, now only 13.8% below pre-pandemic (2017-2019) levels as opposed to 16.8% last month. 

Even though spring data is looking positive, Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale said there is “worry heading into April” as geopolitical tensions could potentially “cause history to repeat itself.”

“Last spring, tariff-driven uncertainty hit in early April and sidelined both buyers and sellers, setting up a summer where the two sides were simply too far apart to transact,” she explained. “The fundamentals this year are better, more inventory, lower prices, improved affordability, but if sellers pull back next month, we risk another spring that fails to launch.”

Hale noted that with the Fed continuing to hold rates steady and maintain a “wait-and-see” approach, mortgage rates rising and inflation remaining elevated, “uncertainty is once again threatening to sideline buyers and sellers.”

“So far, our data shows a market where so far none of the key warning signs are flashing red, but the path to a strong spring home-buying and -selling season has narrowed,” she said.

What a lot of the industry has been waiting for is more buyer-friendliness in the market to encourage a rise in sales. The recent trend of depreciation in home prices has granted some of this effect, a trend Realtor.com observed, in conjunction with the median home price falling 2.2% year-over-year to $415,450.

Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com, affirmed that buyers are in a “better position than they were a year ago,” as inventory and home prices continue to see modest improvements over time.

Krimmel explained that what is important is that the trends being observed “hold not just nationally but across most regions and most metros.”

Regionally, the data continues to be mixed: the Northeast saw active listings rise 7.9% year-over-year, but new listings fall 1.2% year-over-year. The Midwest saw active listings rise 13.6% year-over-year, but new listings fall 1.3% year-over-year. The South saw both active listings and new listings rise year-over-year, 5.8% and 2.1%, respectively. The West also saw the same trend, with active listings and new listings up 10.6% and 2.4% year-over-year, respectively.

Realtor.com also noted that active listings fell in Orlando, Jacksonville, Hartford, San Francisco, Miami and Chicago.

One consistent trend throughout the regions is a year-over-year decline in median home price.

“Sellers are also coming to market at more realistic prices rather than listing high and cutting later, which is a meaningful shift from 2025,” added Krimmel, who noted that moving forward, “what happens in April is the real test.”

“March typically sets the table for the spring season, and last year we saw that momentum collapse almost immediately when economic uncertainty hit,” he continued. “Whether sellers stay engaged or pull back will tell us a great deal about where this market is headed.”