The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.5% in November to 103, following a decline of 1% in October. The LEI contracted by 3.5% over the six-month period between May and November 2023, a smaller decrease than its 4.3% contraction over the previous six months (November 2022 to May 2023).
“The U.S. LEI continued declining in November, with stock prices making virtually the only positive contribution to the index in the month,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. “Housing and labor market indicators weakened in November, reflecting warning areas for the economy. The Leading Credit Index and manufacturing new orders were essentially unchanged, pointing to a lack of economic growth momentum in the near term.
“Despite the economy’s ongoing resilience—as revealed by the U.S. CEI—and December’s improvement in consumer confidence, the U.S. LEI suggests a downshift of economic activity ahead. As a result, The Conference Board forecasts a short and shallow recession in the first half of 2024.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.2% in November 2023 to 111.2, after no change in October. The CEI is now up 1% over the six-month period between May and November 2023, compared to 0.7% growth over the previous six months. The CEI’s component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the U.S. All four components of the index were positive in November, with personal income less transfer payments being the strongest contributor, followed by much smaller positive contributions from the remaining three components.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index for the U.S. rose by 0.5% in November 2023 to 119.2, following an increase of 0.3% in October. The LAG is up by 0.8% over the six-month period from May to November 2023, an improvement compared to 0.5% growth over the previous six months.
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