The rental crisis that has plagued American renters for years appears to be abating, with 50 of the nation’s largest 100 metropolitan rental markets now trading at a discount, according to the latest Waller, Weeks and Johnson Rental Index released by the University of Mississippi.
The research shows a massive shift in rental dynamics as a boom in multifamily construction creates more supply and puts downward pressure on rents across major markets. Ten metros experienced month-over-month rent decreases in April, led by North Port, Florida, which saw rents drop 0.68%.
“The surge in multifamily unit construction appears to be the game changer here,” said index co-creator Ken Johnson, the Christie Kirland Walker Chair of Real Estate at the University of Mississippi School of Business Administration. “In many areas of the country, rental concessions are once again occurring. This is always a good sign for tenants and a sign that renters are beginning to get the upper hand in rental negotiations.”
The national average monthly rent stands at $2,024, according to the index. Markets showing the steepest monthly declines included Rochester, New York (-0.32%); Poughkeepsie, New York (-0.31%); McAllen, Texas (-0.31%); and Akron, Ohio (-0.30%).
However, some markets remain extremely competitive for renters. Eight metros posted month-over-month rent increases exceeding 1%, including Winston-Salem, North Carolina; Augusta, Georgia; Springfield, Massachusetts; Chicago; Provo, Utah; Spokane, Washington; Buffalo, New York; and Tulsa, Oklahoma. All except Chicago have rents below the national average.
The rental market adjustment stems largely from the post-pandemic construction boom. Expected multifamily property completions for 2024 total 533,000 units, a 10% decrease from the 40-year high of 588,000 units in 2023, according to a CoStar Group analysis. However, this represents the second-highest annual new supply since the 2008 financial crisis.
Multiple factors are putting downward pressure on rental rates across many U.S. markets. The main driver? A massive influx of new apartment supply, particularly in Sun Belt and Mountain regions where some markets have grown their rental inventories by nearly 20% over three years, according to CBRE’s U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook 2025 report. This oversupply has forced landlords to offer concessions to attract new tenants.
High mortgage rates, hovering near 7%, are also at play, keeping potential homebuyers in the rental market longer. The typical asking rent price for a single-family home in January was $2,179, up 0.3% from a month prior, and up 4.4% from a year ago, while multifamily rents showed more modest increases at 2.7% year-over-year, according to Zillow data.
The relief for renters may be temporary, though. Industry analysts warn that as the current supply wave is absorbed and construction starts decline significantly, the rental market could swing back toward undersupply conditions. According to CBRE, construction starts, from a high of 210,000 units starting construction in the first quarter of 2022 to just 63,000 units in 2024, suggest future supply constraints.
The Waller, Weeks and Johnson Rental Index tracks rental statistics across 100 of the nation’s largest rental markets, updated monthly between the 15th and end of each month. The index measures current rents against statistically estimated rents for each market based on historical data, determining whether markets trade at premiums or discounts.
Johnson noted that despite progress in addressing the rental crisis, construction must continue in the 50 metros still leasing at premiums. The lower-rent markets experiencing the hottest growth may not have attracted heavy developer attention due to lower returns, keeping those areas short on supply.
