California and New Jersey counties dominated the list of the nation’s most vulnerable housing markets in this year’s first quarter, accounting for nearly half of the 50 most at-risk markets, according to ATTOM’s latest Special Housing Risk Report.
Basing risk on affordability, foreclosures, unemployment rates and proportion of seriously underwater mortgages—where the combined balance of loans was at least 25% more than the property’s value—the report placed 14 California markets and nine New Jersey markets as the most vulnerable in the country.
Of the 572 counties analyzed, in 109, a typical resident would have to spend over half their annual income on a down payment, mortgage and other initial expenses for a median-priced home.
“Affordability is an obvious concern, but as the data shows, there’s a complex interplay between price, wages, mortgage health and foreclosure rates that can give even greater insight into where property values are likely to go in the future,” said ATTOM CEO Rob Barber.
Three Northern California counties affected by this year’s wildfires—Butte, Humboldt and Shasta counties—topped the list, followed by New Jersey’s Atlantic and Cumberland counties along the state’s southern coast.
Notably, there were no counties in the area surrounding New York City, which have previously been ranked among the riskiest in the nation.
Affordability crisis, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment
Nationally, prospective homebuyers would have to spend 32.5% of their annual wages to afford a home. In the counties analyzed, residents would have to put aside 59.3% of their income.
Here is the percentage of a resident’s income needed to cover a home’s initial expenses in a few of those counties:
- 109.5% in Kings County, New York
- 101.5% in Maui County, Hawaii
- 100.1% in San Luis Obispo County, California
- 97.8% in Orange County, California
- 97.5% in Marin County, California
Honing in on properties with mortgages considered seriously underwater, 37.8% of the counties examined fit into that category, compared to the 2.8% nationwide.
Louisiana topped the list of markets with the highest rates of seriously underwater properties:
- 14% in Calcasieu Parish, Louisiana
- 13.7% in East Baton Rouge Parish, Louisiana
- 13.4% in Caddo Parish, Louisiana
- 13.1% in Rapides Parish, Louisiana
- 12.8% in Ouachita Parish, Louisiana
Across the nation, foreclosure activity affected one in every 1,515 homes. In 19.2% of the counties analyzed, more than one of every 1,000 properties faced foreclosure in this year’s first quarter.
The counties with the worst foreclosure rates are as follows:
- One out of 434 homes in Dorchester County, South Carolina
- One out of 463 homes in Johnson County, Texas
- One out of 472 homes in Highlands County, Florida
- One out of 473 homes in Cumberland County, New Jersey
- One out of 517 homes in Kaufman County, Texas
About a third of the counties analyzed had higher unemployment rates than the national rate of 4.3% in March 2025.
Mostly in California, the counties with the highest rates of unemployment were:
- Imperial County, California, with 16.6% unemployment
- Tulare County, California, with 11.4% unemployment
- Merced County, California, with 11.3% unemployment
- Yuma County, Arizona, with 11.1% unemployment
- Kings County, California, with 10% unemployment
Different story in the South
Of the 50 least at-risk counties, 27 were located in Southern states, 12 in the Midwest and seven in the Northeast.
Tennessee topped the list with nine counties among the most favorable: Sullivan, Hamilton, Washington, Blount, Sumner, Davidson, Wilson, Knox and Rutherford.
Following was Virginia with seven counties: Henrico, Prince William, Alexandria City, Arlington, Virginia Beach City, Loudoun and Fairfax.
Next up was Wisconsin with four counties: Outagamie, Winnebago, Brown and La Crosse.
Other major metro areas in the top 50 were: Honolulu County, Hawaii; Hennepin County, Minnesota; and Wake County, North Carolina.
Top 50 versus bottom 50
The counties that made ATTOM’s top 50 least risky list tended to be more affordable, but not by much.
A typical resident had to spend less than a third of their annual income to purchase and pay for a new home in 19 of the top 50 counties, compared to 15 of the 50 most risky counties.
Among the 50 least at-risk counties, the ones with the lowest portion of wages required for home ownership were:
- Madison County, Alabama, at 21.4%
- Sullivan County, Tennessee, at 21.6%
- Morgan County, Alabama, at 23.3%
- Midland County, Texas, at 25.6%
- Durham County, North Carolina, at 26.4%
When it comes to homes with seriously underwater mortgages, 44 out of the top 50 least at-risk counties were lower than the national average of 2.8%. The counties with the lowest rate of seriously underwater homes were:
- Loudoun County, Virginia, at 0.5%
- Prince William County, Virginia, at 0.7%
- Fairfax County, Virginia, at 0.9%
- Maui County, Hawaii, at 0.9%
- Saratoga County, New York, at 1%
Only one of the 50 least at-risk counties had a foreclosure filing rate greater than the national average of one in every 1,515 homes. That was Shelby County, Alabama, with one in every 1,465 homes facing possible foreclosure in this year’s first quarter.
The lowest foreclosure rates for the top 50 counties were:
- One in every 17,249 homes in Arlington County, Virginia
- One in every 11,118 homes in Gallatin County, Montana
- One in every 10,815 homes in Medina County, Ohio
- One in every 7,605 homes in La Crosse County, Wisconsin
- One in every 7,502 homes in Berkeley County, West Virginia
Across the board, the 50 least at-risk counties had unemployment rates below the national rate of 4.3%. The lowest rates were in:
- 1.9% in Minnehaha County, South Dakota
- 2.2% in Gallatin County, Montana
- 2.3% in Honolulu County, Hawaii
- 2.6% in Rutherford County, Tennessee and Hamilton County, Indiana
