The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which measures American opinions of current economic conditions and their outlook for the next six months, declined by 6.8 points in November to 88.7 from 95.5 in October, as already negative consumer attitudes toward the economy appear to be souring further.
The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell by 4.3 points to 126.9. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions—fell by 8.6 points to 63.2. The Expectations Index has tracked below 80 for 10 consecutive months, the threshold under which the gauge signals recession ahead. The cutoff for preliminary results was Nov. 18, 2025.
“Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist, The Conference Board. “All five components of the overall index flagged or remained weak. The Present Situation Index dipped as consumers were less sanguine about current business and labor market conditions.”
The relationship between consumer confidence and home sales is more complicated than it might appear at first, but generally, a lack of confidence in the economy is a sign people will put off major decisions like home sales or purchases. Sentiment toward jobs in particular can indicate negative housing market outcomes.
“The labor market differential—the share of consumers who say jobs are ‘plentiful’ minus the share saying ‘hard to get’—dipped again in November after a brief respite in October from its year-to-date decline,” added Peterson. “All three components of the Expectations Index deteriorated in November. Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now. Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings.”
Among demographic groups, confidence continued to improve for consumers under 35, but confidence for consumers aged 35 and older dipped, with respondents 55 and over remaining the most downbeat this year. By income, confidence fell for nearly all cohorts after several months of increasing confidence for most groups. Consumers earning less than $15K was the only income bracket in which confidence improved in November but remained the least optimistic among all income groups. Confidence fell among consumers of all political stripes, with the sharpest retreat among independent voters.
“Consumers’ write-in responses pertaining to factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics, with increased mentions of the federal government shutdown,” noted Peterson. “Mentions of the labor market eased somewhat but still stood out among all other frequent themes not already cited. The overall tone from November write-ins was slightly more negative than in October.”
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