Don’t rely on national housing market headlines to understand your local market; that’s the key takeaway from Realtor.com®’s December monthly housing report, which reveals how dramatically individual metros diverged from broader trends throughout 2025.
The report introduces a new framework for understanding these local differences: “benchmarkets” versus outliers. Benchmarkets are metros whose inventory and price movements closely mirror their national averages, while outliers chart their own course entirely.
“Looking at the housing market through national or even regional averages can miss what’s really happening on the ground,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. “In 2025, some metros closely tracked their regional story, while others followed a very different narrative. Understanding whether your local market is typical or an exception is critical as we head into 2026.”
Regional patterns mask local realities
While regional trends showed clear patterns—with the Northeast and Midwest remaining tight and the South and West experiencing stronger inventory growth—the benchmarked analysis reveals these regional narratives only tell part of the story.
The recovery from pandemic-era shortages remains highly uneven. Nine of the 50 largest markets now exceed pre-pandemic inventory levels by at least 25%, all in the South or West. San Antonio leads at 49.1% above pre-pandemic levels, followed by Denver at 48.3% and Austin at 42.3%.
Meanwhile, 16 of the top 50 metros remain at least 25% below pre-pandemic norms, with Hartford, Connecticut, down 76.2%; Providence down 57.1% and Chicago down 55.9%.
The benchmarket framework
In 2025, Oklahoma City emerged as a clear national benchmarket, with inventory growth and price-per-square-foot trends that closely tracked the U.S. average month after month.
By contrast, Milwaukee stood out as a national outlier, posting far more muted inventory growth but price-per-square-foot gains well above the national pace.
The pattern repeated across all four regions. In the Northeast, Pittsburgh served as the benchmarket, while Providence diverged sharply with 20.7% inventory growth versus the regional average of 11.7%, and price-per-square-foot gains of 5.8% compared to 3.7% regionally.
The Midwest saw Cincinnati track closely with its 22.4% inventory growth against a 16.4% national average, while Milwaukee posted just 5.1% inventory growth but 5.7% price gains versus 1.4% regionally.
In the South, Nashville aligned with regional trends, showing 26.6% inventory growth and slight price declines, while Washington, D.C., experienced explosive 51.1% inventory growth and steeper price drops of 3.2% year-over-year.
The West showed similar divergence, with Riverside, California, mirroring the region’s 33% inventory growth, while San Diego saw 42.4% inventory expansion.
What the national numbers show
Active listings rose 12.1% in December compared to a year earlier, marking the 26th consecutive month of year-to-year gains, according to the report. However, growth has decelerated significantly since peaking near 30% in late spring and early summer.
Inventory declined 8.9% month-over-month in December due to seasonal slowdowns, pushing active listings below 1 million homes for the first time since April. Despite two years of recovery, national inventory remains 12.5% below 20217-2019 norms.
The national median list price fell to $400,000, down 0.6% year-over-year and 3.6% from November. Price per square foot declined 1.3% year-over-year. Since December 2019, however, median list prices have climbed 33.4% and price per square foot has surged 47.8%.
The bottom line for 2026
Demand softened in December, with homes taking four days longer to sell than a year earlier, though time on market has largely returned to historical norms.
“Housing in 2025 wasn’t defined by a single national narrative,” Hale added. “Some markets told the regional story almost perfectly, while others consistently defied it. As buyers and sellers plan for the year ahead, knowing which markets align to broader trends and which are charting their own course can help set more realistic expectations.”
