The CoreLogic HPI Forecast Validation Report was recently released, comparing the 12-month CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) Forecast to the actual CoreLogic Home Price Index. The report compares the changes in national and key Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)-level forecasts made in Nov. 2017 to the actual HPI index, which includes data through Nov. 2018.
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. National values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighing indices according to the number of housing units for each state. The report showed:
- The national forecast prediction of a 4.7 percent increase was within 0.1 percent of the 4.8 percent increase of the HPI for the 12-month period ending in Nov. 2018.
- The most accurate CBSA-level forecast was for the Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, Mass., area, which at 5.5 percent came on target of the actual HPI increase of 5.5 percent.
- The widest CBSA gap was in San Diego, Calif., with a 6.4 percent overestimation of actual increase (10.4 percent forecasted vs. 4 percent actual). CoreLogic notes that the variance in this undervalued CBSA was due to a downturn of overall demand, combined with a concern over long-term affordability.
- Among the 10 most accurately forecasted major Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), nine areas had forecasts with less than a 1 percent difference from actual values.
- Severe inventory shortages and rising interest rates impacted the forecasts of several MSAs, reflecting the overall market volatility of the past 12 months.
“The latest HPI Forecast Validation report continues to demonstrate why CoreLogic is the gold standard when it comes to home price forecasting,” says Ann Regan, executive, Product Management for CoreLogic. “Despite an extremely volatile market, our forecasts were still able to provide terrific insight into the overall housing
economy, providing HPI clients with the reliability they need in the current market.”
For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
