Just because the housing market is shifting doesn’t mean consumers will see lower price tags anytime soon. This, according to new data released by Florida Atlantic University (FAU) and Florida International University (FIU), has been evident as the upward trajectory of home values persists despite “anecdotal signs of a U.S. housing slowdown.”
In their latest monthly report, researchers from FAU and FIU showed that buyers were forced to pay higher premiums in May as home prices climbed in almost every market (99 of the 100). This comes as the general narrative pointing toward a pullback in the market as mortgage rates and home price growth are pricing buyers out of the market.
The report ranks the most overvalued housing markets of America’s 100 largest metros by determining the premiums buyers pay, researchers from FAU and FIU. According to an FAU press release, the larger the premium, the more overpriced a market is.
Population shifts and the tight supply of homes for sale during the pandemic played significant roles in the rising costs of homes in markets that were once secluded. Experts indicate that those factors will be the main drivers in how the housing crisis plays out nationwide.
“In the downturn of 2006 to 2012, prices fell precipitously across most of the nation, but this time the researchers expect a bifurcated outcome,” read the report, which urged areas with significant increases in population and persistent inventory shortages to avoid major price cuts.
Conversely, the report also states that markets with fewer inventory challenges and population change will likely become more affordable due to significant price declines.
Key findings:
- Month-over-month prices are up in 99 of the 100 measured markets in May.
- Nineteen housing markets were at least 50% overvalued in May, up from 15 in April.
- The most overvalued housing markets were Boise, Idaho (70.76%), Austin, Texas (67.97%) and Ogden, Utah (64.44%).
- The least overvalued housing markets were Baltimore, Maryland (3.13%), Honolulu, Hawaii (3.46%), Washington, D.C. (4.32%) and New York (4.50%).
The takeaway
“There are plenty of reports that mortgage applications and home showings are falling as interest rates rise,” said Ken H. Johnson, an economist in FAU’s College of Business. “We expect prices eventually will level off as well, particularly if a recession occurs and lending rates remain high. But so far, prices continue to rise in the vast majority of markets.”
“The evidence continues to suggest that we are nearing the peak of the current housing cycle. People buying homes now in the most overvalued markets should be prepared to stay there for at least several years to ride out what could be a bumpy stretch for prices.”
“At this rate, it won’t be long before Austin overtakes Boise as the most overvalued market in the country,” said Eli Beracha of FIU’s Hollo School of Real Estate. “Austin has a lot going for it, including weather, culture and the economy, so it’s naturally attracting more residents who are driving up home prices there.”
Jordan Grice is RISMedia’s associate online editor. Email him your real estate news to jgrice@rismedia.com.
