The past few weeks, I’ve heard from more than a few friends and colleagues and even relatives outside of New York: “Are people really leaving? How bad is it? Are you moving?”
It’s an understandable sentiment given the flood of national headlines suggesting that New Yorkers are once again packing up for Connecticut or Florida, supposedly driven out by politics, or taxes or whatever the story of the day may be. But as someone who works at the center of this market every single day, I can say this with confidence: the narrative doesn’t match reality.
Despite the clickbait coverage, Manhattan real estate is showing remarkable strength. October saw more than 1,050 contracts signed—the most for that month since 2021, representing a 39% jump from September and a 5% increase year over year. Luxury led the way, with contracts above $4 million up 82% month over month and 21% year over year.
If there were truly a mass exodus, we’d see it in the data. But inventory is behaving exactly as it should this time of year as the market moves into fall. There’s no sign of panic selling and no surge of “fleeing” homeowners. Instead, the numbers point to a stable market that continues to attract buyers who believe in New York’s long-term value.
Here’s the big plot twist that everyone’s conveniently glossing over: many of the people who left during the height of COVID or the early SALT cap years have moved back. One client told me she missed going to Broadway shows and museums. Others have expressed a hunger for the pace and vigor and immense amount of diversity. NYC is perhaps the biggest melting pot. As the talent and financial capital, there is a special energy that overwhelms the senses and makes you feel at your best. Whatever the reason, the one-way migration story does not reflect reality.
The truth is, those who wanted to leave New York have largely already done so. Could there be more? Possibly. But what remains is a community of people who are here by choice. They see opportunity in this moment. Inventory is healthy, pricing is steady, and with mortgage rates beginning to ease, savvy buyers are stepping back in.
New York has been declared “dead” more times than any of us can count. It has survived fiscal crises, blackouts, 9/11, a global pandemic and it’s come back stronger every single time. You can change the mayor, the tax code or the headlines, but you can’t change the dynamism and resilience of this city.
So, to my well-meaning friends just “checking in” from the suburbs or down south or even Spain: thanks for your concern, but we’re doing just fine here in Manhattan. In 2025, it’s expected that 68 million people will have visited NYC, a record number. Come see for yourself!
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