This week saw a decrease in overall home purchase applications but the average mortgage rate held steady at or around three-year lows.
The latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), released by Freddie Mac Thursday, shows the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaging 6.10%, a slight increase of 1 basis point from last week’s rate average of 6.09%.
“Mortgage rates remain near their lowest levels in three years, which is encouraging for potential homebuyers who have waited to enter the market for some time,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Lower rates, combined with strong income growth, have led to a steady increase in purchase applications compared to last year. We’re also seeing more homeowners refinancing their mortgages to benefit from these lower rates, as shown by the rise in refinance applications over the past year.”
Realtor.com Economist Jiayi Xu said that while recent outstanding mortgage data shows that loans with rates above 6% now surpass those below 3%, causing some buyers and sellers to transact, borrowing costs remain high enough to strain affordability and keep many homeowners on the sidelines, which limits new listings.
On a macro level, Xu noted that the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady reinforces the view that policymakers remain cautious and data-dependent, waiting for clearer evidence that inflation is sustainably moving toward target before easing policy. At the same time, she said January consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in more than a decade, reflecting growing concerns about the job market and the broader economy—conditions that could temper housing demand.
“Adding to the uncertainty, ongoing geopolitical tensions are contributing to volatility in Treasury yields, making it more likely that mortgage rates remain choppy rather than move decisively lower in the near term,” Xu noted.
“Taken together, these signals point to a market that is gradually adjusting to higher rates…(but) recovery is expected to be slow and uneven until rates move significantly lower and inventory expands further.”
Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant commented, “Even with the slight increase, mortgage rates are still at their lowest level in more than 14 months. But it will be movement, perhaps more than the actual level, that prospective homebuyers will be responding to.”
Mortgage rates could continue to move higher as we head into the spring homebuying season, she cautioned, as political uncertainty, both domestically and internationally, is going to be an important factor in rate trajectory, leading to rate volatility and probably higher rates in the weeks ahead.
“Expectations for a robust spring housing market depend a lot on where mortgage rates head,” Sturtevant noted. “Right now, there is still a lot of uncertainty which could continue to hold buyers and sellers back.”
To that end, this week’s report from Mortgage Bankers Association showed mortgage applications decreasing 8.5% from one week earlier, according to data from its latest Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 23, 2026. These results include an adjustment for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day federal holiday.
MBA’s Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 8.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 16% compared with the previous week.
On the one hand, “Purchase applications were 18 percent higher than last year’s pace, and the average loan size stayed at its highest level since September 2025, signaling that prospective homebuyers remain active at the start of 2026,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist.
While on the other, MBA showed its Refinance Index decreasing 16% from the previous week, but was 156% higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.4% from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 4% compared with the previous week and was 18% higher than the same week one year ago.
“Mortgage rates increased for the first time in a month, and as expected, refinance applications fell by 16 percent. The 30-year fixed rate was the highest in three weeks at 6.24 percent,” said Kan. “FHA refinance activity bucked the overall trend and increased, as FHA rates remained almost 20 basis points lower than conforming rates. With rates holding in the 6 percent range, the refinance market is likely to remain sensitive to week-to-week rate movements.”
According to MBA, the refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 56.2% of total applications from 61.9% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 7.6% of total applications.
Government-backed loans including the FHA share of total applications increased to 18.6% from 15.9% the week prior. The VA share of total applications decreased to 14.7% from 16.2% the week prior. The USDA share of total applications increased to 0.5 percent from 0.4% the week prior.
At a glance
- The 30-year FRM averaged 6.10% as of January 29, 2026, up slightly from last week when it averaged 6.09%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.95%.
- The 15-year FRM averaged 5.49%, up from last week when it averaged 5.44%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.12%.
Click here for the full MBA report and here for Freddie Mac’s average mortgage rate report.
