The optimism of a new year does not seem to have brought a boost to U.S. consumer confidence—quite the opposite, in fact. According to the latest survey from the Conference Board, consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since 2014, lower even than the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Confidence collapsed in January, as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist of The Conference Board, the nonprofit think tank that issues the report. “All five components of the Index deteriorated, driving the overall Index to its lowest level since May 2014 (82.2)—surpassing its COVID-19 pandemic depths.”
While December’s initial Consumer Confidence report found confidence inching down, this report was revised upward several points to 94.2 (compared to the index’s baseline rating of 100). Now, the January survey found a 9.7-point monthly drop, from December’s 94.2 to 84.5. According to reporting by CNN, this falls well below economists’ projected 91.1 index reading.
Both the Present Situations Index—measuring consumers’ assessment of current economic and labor conditions—and the Expectations Index—gauging consumers’ short-term economic outlooks—posted significant monthly declines in January. The Present Situations Index dropped by 9.9 points to 113.7, while the Expectations index fell by 9.5 points to 65.1.
Following the Federal Reserve’s latest round of interest rate cuts, the number of respondents who expected interest rates to be higher in 12 months fell. While consumers’ average inflation expectations for the next year increased, the median fell further.
This is “well below” the threshold (80 on the index) to indicate a recession is ahead. The Conference Board found the number of respondents who said a recession is “not likely” or “somewhat likely” came down in January, but the number of those who said a recession is “very likely” or that the U.S. is already in a recession inched up.
Confidence also fell across all age groups, income brackets and political affiliations, indicating downward momentum is widespread. Noting consumers’ write-in responses, Peterson indicated that consumers remain frustrated by today’s higher cost of living and ongoing political events.
“References to prices and inflation, oil and gas prices and food and grocery prices remained elevated. Mentions of tariffs and trade, politics, and the labor market also rose in January, while references to health/insurance and war edged higher,” Peterson said, noting references to war could refer to the Trump administration’s seizure of power in Venezuela and its desire to acquire Greenland.
The worries about health and insurance also track with the ending of expanded subsidies, and subsequent reports of higher premiums for Americans who receive health insurance coverage through the Affordable Care Act.
Conversely, the consumer sentiment index maintained by the University of Michigan showed slight improvements during January 2026 and found international events (besides tariffs) did not seem to be factoring into consumers’ economic outlook. It remains to be seen which of these readings will bear out more closely as the year continues.
