Consumers’ perception of the economy plays as vital a role in shaping market activity as hard economic data, as consumers will want to know whether the economy is on solid footing before they make a major financial decision (such as buying a home).
The latest report on Consumer Confidence from the nonprofit Conference Board—based on data collected up to February 17—found that confidence had inched up, but still falls short of the recent high in November 2024. Compared to the historical average of 100 (based on ratings from 1985), consumer confidence ranked at 91.2, up slightly from the revised 89 rating found in January’s report.
The report’s Present Situations index, measuring how consumers feel about the current state of the economy, fell by 1.8 points to 120 in February. Meanwhile, the Expectations’ index—measuring consumers’ short-term outlook for the economy—improved by 4.8 points to 72.
Conference Board Chief Economist Dana M. Peterson suggested in the report that “consumers’ pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat” in February compared to January.
“Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism,” Peterson also noted. “Comments about prices, inflation and the cost of goods remained at the top of consumer’s minds. Mentions of trade and politics also increased in February. Labor market mentions eased a bit in February, while observations about immigration increased somewhat.”
Indeed, the index’s reporting found consumers’ concerns about employment conditions eased slightly during February. For instance, 28% of respondents described jobs as “plentiful” in February, compared to 25.8% in January. Yet at the same time, more people (20.6%) also called jobs “hard to get” in February compared to those who said so in January (19%).
Twenty-six point one percent of consumers also said in February they expect there will be fewer jobs available in the near future. While this was down from the number who said so in January (28.7%), it still dwarfs the number of surveyed consumers who said in February there will be more jobs available (15.7%, compared to 14.8%).
As for income expectations, 17.3% of consumers said they expect their incomes to increase (compared to 17.2% in January), while 12.3% said they expect their incomes to decrease (compared to 12.8% in January).
Consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next 12 months were little changed but remained elevated; the latest findings of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index found inflation had increased at the end of 2025. The notes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting also indicate the Fed does not plan to cut interest rates until solid proof inflation is declining; the Consumer Confidence report found that surveyed consumers expected interest rates to remain at higher levels over the next 12 months.
