The Western region is bearing the greater brunt of the housing market slowdown, while the Midwest, South and Northeast remain less affected, according to a new report from ATTOM.
ATTOM’s Q1 2023 Special Housing Impact Report found that 23 of the 50 counties considered most affected by the housing market drop-off (from among 572) were in the West. Meanwhile, all but two of 50 counties considered least affected by the broader market downturn were in the Midwest, South and Northeast regions.
Key highlights:
- The Top 50 most affected counties included seven in Oregon: Deschutes County, Douglas County, Jackson County, Lane County, Linn County, Marion County and Yamhill County.
- Another five were in Washington: Clark County, Cowlitz County, Skagit County, Spokane County and Yakima County. Others in the Top 50 were scattered around the country, with concentrations in areas where single-family homes typically sold for at least $350,000.
- Median single-family home and condo prices decreased by more than the nationwide 7.2% decline (from $345,000 to $320,000) in 31 of the 50 counties considered most affected by the market downturn. Typical values increased during that time in only three of those counties.
- The largest price decreases in those markets came in Washington County, Pennsylvania (-25.5%); Tompkins County, New York (-25.5%); Peoria County, Illinois (-24.6%); San Francisco County, California (-18%); and Boone County, Missouri (-17.6%).
- At the same time, underwater residential mortgage rates grew by more than the nationwide increase in all 50 counties considered most affected. The national rate rose during that time from 5.9% to 6.2%.
- Among those 50 counties, the biggest increases in the portion of homeowners who owed more on their mortgages than the estimated value of their properties, included Dona Ana County, New Mexico (from 7.8% to 11%); Pinal County, Arizona (from 2.8% to 5.5%); Williamson County, Texas (from 1.4% to 4%); Gaston County, North Carolina (from 4.3% to 6.6%); and St. Lawrence County, New York (from 18.3% to 20.6%).
- Foreclosure-activity rates also went up more than the nationwide figure in 49 of the 50 most-affected counties. Nationwide, the portion of homes facing possible foreclosure worsened 6.4% from one of every 1,559 properties to one of every 1,459.
- The biggest increases in foreclosure-activity ratios from the second quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year among the Top 50 counties came in Muskegon County, Michigan (from one in 1,286 to one in 224); Lane County, Oregon (from one in 11,873 to one in 3,305); the District of Columbia (from one in 6,611 to one in 1,923); Spokane County, Washington (from one in 20,365 properties to one in 6,342); and Douglas County, Oregon (from one in 4,977 to one in 1,656).
- Of the least affected areas, Texas had eight of those 50 counties, spread throughout the state: Fort Bend County, Gregg County, Jefferson County, Midland County, Smith County, Tom Green County, Webb County and Wichita County (Wichita Falls). Six of Connecticut’s eight counties were also among the 50 least affected: Fairfield County, Hartford County, Litchfield County, Middlesex County, New London County and Windham County.
- Median single-family home prices and condos decreased by more than the nationwide drop-off in only 10 of the 50 counties considered least affected by the housing market slowdown. Typical values actually increased during that time in 15 of those counties.
- The largest increases in those markets came in Gallatin County, Montana (+9.4%); Midland County, Texas (+8.4%); Schuylkill County, Pennsylvania (+5.3%); Middlesex County, Connecticut (+4.8%); and Tom Green County, Texas (+4.3%).
- Underwater residential mortgage rates went down, or increased by less than the nationwide gain, in all 50 counties considered least affected by the recent market fallback. Among those counties, the biggest decreases included Lake County, Indiana (from 18.9% to 6.4%); Gallatin County, Montana (from 12.4% to 2.9%); Porter County, Indiana (from 11.8% to 6.3%); Tom Green County, Texas (from 19.3% to 14.3%); and Sussex County, Delaware (from 10.7% to 6.6%).
- Foreclosure-activity rates decreased, or went up less than the nationwide figure, in 49 of the 50 least-affected counties. The biggest improvements in foreclosure-activity rates came in Gallatin County, Montana (from one in 8,806 to one in 51,826); Horry County, South Carolina (from one in 1,415 to one in 4,307); Schuylkill County, Pennsylvania (from one in 1,974 to one in 5,186); Clay County, Missouri (from one in 1,214 properties to one in 2,981); and Houston County, Alabama (from one in 1,297 to one in 3,059).
Major takeaway:
“We are starting to see some patterns that show where the U.S. housing market is cooling off and how it’s hitting homeowners based on some key metrics. It looks so far—and it’s important to stress, so far—to be having more impact in places with the highest housing costs and less impact elsewhere,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “This doesn’t mean those markets are in danger of a big fall while others are immune, but the data does provide a useful geographical snapshot of the initial market dip.”
For the full report, click here.
