The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) flattened this week, from last week’s average of 6.77% to a current average of 6.78%, according to the latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) from Freddie Mac released Thursday.
This week’s numbers:
- The 30-year FRM averaged 6.78% as of July 25, 2024, up slightly from last week when it averaged 6.77%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.81%.
- The 15-year FRM averaged 6.07%, up from last week when it averaged 6.05%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.11%.
The takeaways:
“Mortgage rates essentially remained flat from last week but have decreased nearly half a percent from their peak earlier this year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Despite these lower rates, buyers continue to pause, as reflected in tumbling new and existing home sales data.”
Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale:
“The Freddie Mac rate for a 30-year mortgage steadied this week, rising just 1 basis point to 6.78% as 10-year Treasury yields hovered around 4.2%. The upcoming Presidential election continues to deliver surprising twists. Meanwhile, the economic data are generally behaving more in line with expectations–stacking up in a way that should give the Fed leeway to ease monetary policy by cutting the Fed Funds rate, likely as soon as September. The June jobs report and CPI data are just two examples that the Fed can point to if it chooses to use its meeting next week to signal that a rate cut is coming.
“The market-estimated odds of at least one quarter point rate cut by September are 100%. With a strong consensus around this outcome, it raises the possibility that the Fed could disappoint and send interest rates like mortgage rates higher if it fails to send a strong signal that a cut is coming. Most likely, however, even if the Fed pledges only to remain “data dependent,” investors believe the data is consistent with a cut in the next month or so, and that should help mortgage rates remain steady to slightly lower.
“With home prices continuing to hover at or near record highs, mortgage rate swings have an outsized impact on affordability and transaction activity. Both new home sales and existing home sales took a step back in June. Not only do elevated mortgage rates eat into homebuyer demand, by holding back their buying power, we also see an impact on inventory as higher rates have tended to keep more sellers on the sidelines. Fortunately for buyers, the early-year mortgage rate relief prompted homeowners to make plans to move, and the data suggest that by and large those who decided to list their homes for sale are patiently navigating the market rather than giving up and de-listing their homes. This should help nudge the balance of supply and demand slightly toward buyers and set up the possibility of more home sales activity this fall as mortgage rates ease.”
