Consumer confidence fell for the fourth consecutive month, registering below the threshold for recession indicators for the second straight month—reflecting many consumers’ continued apprehension toward the economy, according to the latest data from The Conference Board.
The Consumer Confidence Index® fell by 7.2 points in March to 92.9, similar to the seven-point decrease seen last month.
Stephanie Guichard—senior economist of Global Indicators at The Conference Board—noted that this decrease falls “below the relatively narrow range that had prevailed since 2022.”
The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—decreased 3.6 points to 134.5.
Consumers’ outlook of business conditions were down again in March: 17.7% of consumers said business conditions were “good” (down from 19.1% in February), and
16.6% said business conditions were “bad” (up from 14.8%). As for the current labor market sentiment, 33.6% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful” (unchanged from February), while 15.7% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get” (down from 16%).
The report noted that “comments on the current Administration and its policies, both positive and negative, dominated consumers’ write-in responses on what is affecting their views of the economy.”
The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions—dropped 9.6 points to 65.2, the lowest level in 12 years. This metric once again falls below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead, having first dipped under the mark in February.
Looking ahead at the next six months, consumer purchasing plans for homes were down in March. Further expectations for the next six months worsened as well.
In terms of business conditions, 17.1% of consumers expected business conditions to improve (down from 20.8% in February), and 27.3% expected business conditions to worsen (up from 25.5%). For jobs, 16.7% of consumers expected more jobs to be available (down from 18.8%), while 28.5% anticipated fewer jobs (up from 26.6%). In terms of income prospects, 16.3% of consumers expected their incomes to increase (down from 18.8%), and 15.5% expected their income to decrease (up from 12.8%).
Consumers’ confidence about future employment prospects in the next six months also fell to a 12-year low in March.
Guichard also noted consumer negativity toward the stock market for the first time since 2023, which she stated was “likely in response to recent market volatility.” She reported that “only 37.4% expected stock prices to rise over the year ahead—down nearly 10 percentage points from February and 20 percentage points from the high reached in November 2024. On the flip side, 44.5% expected stock prices to decline (up 11 ppts from February and over 22 ppts more than November 2024).”
“Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations rose again—from 5.8% in February to 6.2% in March—as consumers remained concerned about high prices for key household staples like eggs and the impact of tariffs,” concluded Guichard.
