Despite consumers’ current wariness about the economy, the latest data on home prices shows that sentiment has not caught up as of February 2025. On the contrary, the trendline of recent months shows relatively consistent price growth.
According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, home prices increased annually by 3.9% in February 2025. (The Case-Shiller index runs on a two-month lag.)
Nicholas Godec, the head of fixed income tradables & commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, stated in the release that home prices have remained “resilient” in spite of fairly high mortgage rates that continue to hover around 6.8%.
“Buyer demand has certainly cooled compared to the frenzied pace of prior years, but limited housing supply continues to underpin prices in most markets,” Godec continued. “Rather than broad declines, we are seeing a slower, more sustainable pace of price growth.”
The report attributes supply shortages in part to current mortgage rates, specifically “existing homeowners (being) reluctant to part with low pandemic-era mortgage rates.”
Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com®, noted in an analysis of the latest data that mortgage rates have come down (from a 7.04% peak in January to 6.76% in February).
However, “this period of rate relief was not quite enough to spur many sidelined buyers into action,” Jones wrote. She added that high sale prices can be attributed to “higher-priced homes sold to less rate-sensitive buyers.”
While annual price growth once more continues uninterrupted, the monthly rate of that growth faltered a tad. February’s 3.9% growth is slightly lower than the annual growth recorded in January 2025 (4.1%). This is also the first drop in the growth rate since the December 2024 index (measuring October 2024), when the index fell from 3.9% in November to 3.6% in December.
Regional breakdown
The Case-Shiller 10-City Composite (measuring price growth in 10 of the chosen cities) rose by 5.2% annually—the 20-City composite index rose 4.5% year-over-year.
Of the 20 metro areas surveyed in the index, only two Florida metro areas—Tampa and Miami—posted negative price appreciation when not seasonally adjusted. Miami dropped by 0.27% from January to February, while Tampa dropped by 0.34%. When seasonally adjusted, only 14 of the metro areas posted monthly price gains.
Not seasonally adjusted, the highest month-over-month price growth occurred in Western metro areas: San Francisco, California (1.78%); Seattle, Washington (1.62%); and Los Angeles, California (1.55%). Seasonally-adjusted data about January-February price changes tells a different story.
Chicago, Illinois, led at the highest seasonally-adjusted monthly price growth; prices increased by 0.78% from January to February. This was followed by New York City, New York (0.75%) and Los Angeles, California (0.71%).
The six metro areas that showed negative month-over-month (and seasonally-adjusted) price growth were located in Western or Southern states: San Diego, California (0.35%); Dallas, Texas (0.25%); Portland, Oregon (0.21%); Tampa, Florida (0.17%); Denver, Colorado (0.15%); and Phoenix, Arizona (0.05%).
The report suggests that Sun Belt metro areas, which had “previously experienced rapid appreciation,” are the ones currently most affected by affordability struggles and higher financing costs driving down buyer demand. Jones added in her Realtor.com analysis that “the well-supplied South and West regions show signs of cooling.”
New York City also showed the highest annual percentage increase in its index, which rose by 7.70%. Trailing just behind were Chicago (6.95%) and Cleveland (6.58%). Realtor.com’s report states that the Midwest remaining relatively affordable has attracted more and more buyers, which has the inverse effect of driving up home prices. The Northeast, labeled “unaffordable” by Jones, continues to deal with pre-existing elevated prices.
“Strong demand and challenging selling conditions have kept inventory levels in the Northeast from recovering, driving home prices higher,” Jones added.
Tampa remains the only one of the 20 metro areas to show negative annual growth—the Tampa index experienced an annual drop of 1.46% in February 2025. Dallas—another Southern metro area—showed the lowest amount of positive annual growth in its index, at 0.89%.
For the full Case-Shiller index and report, click here.
