Real estate professionals—and the country at large—breathed a sigh of relief this morning, as the latest data on the labor market showed stronger than expected growth in payrolls, and unemployment unchanged from the previous month.
According to the latest release from the U.S. Department of Labor, the country added 177,000 jobs in April despite disruption from tariffs and fear that trade wars could precipitate a larger economic downturn.
While celebrating the positive news, economists cautioned that it could take some time to fully assess how the labor market—and the economy—is responding to recent stressors.
“It is likely that the impacts of tariffs have not yet worked their way through the economy, so it is possible we will see more of a pullback in hiring in May and June,” said Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant in a statement.
Still, markets reacted positively to the news, with domestic stock indexes all rising sharply in early trading.
For housing, Sturtevant said that consumers’ growing anxiety over economic headwinds is still a major factor, but added that buyer demand has defied expectations for multiple years and kept real estate transactions moving.
“It is possible we could see prospective homebuyers push through the uncertainty to take advantage of more inventory and lower mortgage rates, leading to stronger sales in the weeks ahead,” she said.
National Association of REALTORS® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun went a step further, saying the report shows that “Main Street America continues to move forward.”
“Homeowners across the country are also faring well as housing equity continues to reach new record highs,” he said. “The economy is progressing despite all the trade and tariff disruptions.”
Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said in a statement that the report cements expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its meeting next week, with Fed members previously indicating they want more time to assess the impact of Trump administration policies.
“Mortgage rates are likely to stay within their current range as well,” he added.
At the same time, Fratantoni saw some reasons for concern in the latest jobs data.
“(J)ob gains were concentrated in just a few sectors, including healthcare and transportation and warehousing,” he pointed out. “We expect that transportation and warehousing jobs are at risk as the tariff effects kick in.”
Federal employment is also expected to fall further, with 9,000 jobs lost in April—even as the data excludes workers who have been put on leave. Construction jobs, including residential construction, came in essentially flat.
Cautious optimism
In the end, the labor data is not enough to draw any long-term conclusions about the health of the economy, housing economists agreed.
Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale still called the report “reassuring.”
“In the months ahead we’ll see whether consumers shrug off tariff and job concerns or adjust their home-buying plans instead,” she said.
Hale added that job quits rose to their highest level since July 2024, which is a potentially positive sign, as workers feel confident enough in the market to seek new opportunities. Wage growth also remained high in April, she noted, something that Yun also highlighted.
Housing data has also been somewhere between mixed and positive so far, with the forward-looking indicator of pending sales jumping in March. At the same time, new housing starts fell sharply in March, even before the latest tariff escalation.
