Consumer reports of economic confidence are mixed in October as the government shutdown and other economic challenges persist.
The latest Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board found that confidence fell by one point to 94.6 in October, down from an upwardly revised 95.6 in September.
Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of Global Indicators at The Conference Board, noted that the index “moved sideways” this month, and that “changes to the individual subcomponents were also limited and largely cancelled each other out.”
In addition, purchasing plans for homes weakened, but the report found that the overall six-month trend is rising.
The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—gained 1.8 points, increasing to 129.3. Consumers’ outlook on business conditions saw a slight increase in positivity in October: 20.2% of consumers said business conditions were “good” (up from 19.9% in September), and 14.7% said business conditions were “bad” (down from 15.3%).
As for the current labor market sentiment, 27.8% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful” (up from 26.9%), while 18.4% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get” (up from 18.2%).
“The Present Situation Index regained some strength after September’s drop,” noted Guichard. “Consumers’ view of current business conditions inched upward, while their appraisal of current job availability improved for the first time since December 2024.”
Guichard also noted that write-in responses this month were “led by references to prices and inflation, which continued to be the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy.”
“References to tariffs declined further this month but remained elevated. Mentions of jobs and employment eased somewhat after picking up in September,” she continued. “The write-in comments remained mostly negative overall, but less so than in previous months. References to U.S. politics were up notably, with the ongoing government shutdown mentioned multiple times as a key concern.”
That contrasts with a separate measure of consumer sentiment by the University of Michigan, which saw a surprisingly small segment of consumers pointing to the shutdown as a source of concern.
The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions—declined by 2.9 points to 71.5, below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead. The index fell below 80 in February 2025 and has remained since.
Guichard stated that “all three components of the Expectations Index weakened somewhat.”
“Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions while optimism about future income retreated slightly,” she added.
The average 12-month inflation expectations remained elevated in October, inching up to 5.9% from the 5.8% seen in September. Consumers who expect interest rates to rise grew from 51.1% to 52.8%, while the share who expect a decline fell from 26.9% to 26.2%.
In terms of business conditions, 19% of consumers expected business conditions to improve (down from 19.3% in September), and 22.6% expected business conditions to worsen (unchanged from September).
For jobs, 15.8% of consumers expected more jobs to be available (down from 16.6%), while 27.8% anticipated fewer jobs (up from 25.7%). In terms of income prospects, 17.9% of consumers expected their incomes to increase (down from 18.2%), and 12.5% expected their income to decrease (up from 11.7%).
