In a delayed report on job growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Nov. 20, U.S. employers added 119,000 jobs in September, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.4%. Employment continued to trend up in healthcare, food services and drinking places, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in the federal government.
“The delayed report (numbers are) much higher than the 50,000 jobs economists had forecast,” commented Realtor.com® Senior Economist Jake Krimmel. “Unemployment, on the other hand, was higher than anticipated, while wage growth stayed modest, ticking up just 0.2% month-over-month.
“In some ways, this report fills in the blanks for where the labor market stood in late summer. But because this is the last official labor data the Fed will see before the December FOMC meeting, its interpretation may matter more than the numbers themselves.”
Publication of September data was delayed by more than six weeks because of a lapse in federal appropriations. Collection of September data for the household survey had been completed in accordance with BLS’s normal schedule prior to the federal government shutdown.
Krimmel noted that for housing heading into late 2025 and early 2026, today’s numbers matter in two key ways. First is the path of monetary policy and mortgage rates. While November and December are slower for transactions, buyers and sellers are already looking ahead to spring.
“A softer-but-steady jobs report slightly increases the odds of a December Fed cut,” he said, “which could bring modest rate relief. Even small declines help buyers’ affordability and may ease the lock-in effect for sellers as market rates move closer to their existing mortgages.”
Second, he explained, is the underlying strength of the labor market. Unemployment holding at 4.4% would be a welcome development. But the upward drift and downward revisions warrant attention. If unemployment continues to rise, that could weigh on buyer confidence. Conversely, if job growth firms up and inflation stays contained, wage gains could translate into real purchasing-power improvements just as rates move lower.
“In short,” he said, “today’s report keeps the housing outlook tied to two trends: where mortgage rates go next and whether the labor market softens further or stabilizes.”
This was the first BLS jobs report since the one for August that was released Sept. 5, and the second since President Trump fired then-BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on Aug. 1, following a July jobs report that contained massive revisions for prior months.
MBA SVP and Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni pointed out that most of the employment gains were in just a few sectors, including healthcare and the leisure and hospitality sector.
“Despite the larger-than-expected increase in payroll employment in September, on net, this report aligns with other data showing a somewhat softer labor market, but not one that is rapidly declining in strength,” he said. “Although these data are not as timely as usual, they should still help inform the FOMC’s December decision regarding a potential cut. We expect another 25-basis-point cut, but also expect a number of dissenting views from FOMC members who will vote to hold rates.
“The other important takeaway from this report for the housing market is that wages are growing faster than both rents and home prices in many parts of the country, which helps to improve affordability.”
