The potential of a spring boom appears to still be on the table as pending home sales recorded another uptick in March, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). The future outlook, however, continues to be on shaky ground as the Iranian conflict persists.
NAR’s Pending Home Sales report found that pending sales grew 1.5% in March, the second consecutive monthly increase in 2026, following a 1.8% rise in February. Year-over-year pendings were down 1.1%, a wider gap than 0.8% last month.
Despite the rise in mortgage rates over the month of March, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted contract signings rose, “pointing to pent-up housing demand.”
Realtor.com® Senior Economist Anthony Smith added that despite the rise in rates from 6.11% in mid-March to 6.38% by month’s end, due to ongoing conflict with Iran, “rates remained roughly half a percentage point below the same period last year, preserving much of the year-over-year buying power gains that have quietly been accumulating.”
Regionally, the trends were once again mixed month-over-month and year-over-year. Month-over-month, sales were up in the Northeast (+4.4%) and South (+3.9%), but were down in the Midwest (-1.3%) and West (-2.6%). Year-over-year, the Northeast, Midwest and West all saw decreases (-6.5%, -3.1% and -1.7%, respectively), while the South saw a 2.3% increase.
Sales of existing homes remain at historic lows, as predictions by at least some economists that 2026 would mark a significant turnaround have so far not come to fruition.
But, as always, regional variations remain significant, and NAR highlighted several places where housing transactions are jumping.
“A good number of markets in the South experienced price cuts over the past year but recorded the strongest job growth,” explained Yun. “That combination should lead to stronger housing market activity in the South this year.”
Among the 50 largest metro areas, the top 10 notable year-over-year gains were seen in:
- Kansas City, Missouri-Kansas (+14.9%)
- Milwaukee, Wisconsin (+13.5%)
- Austin, Texas (+12.8%)
- Phoenix, Arizona (+12.1%)
- Raleigh, North Carolina (+10%)
- Portland, Oregon (+9.7%)
- Richmond, Virginia (+8.5%)
- Virginia Beach, Virginia (+8.5%)
- Dallas, Texas (+8.1%)
- Washington, D.C. (+8%)
Looking ahead, Yun said that with a continued release of pent-up demand, “a greater supply of inventory will help translate that demand into more home sales.”
Smith added that the housing market is entering the spring season with “a few meaningful advantages over last year.” He noted improvements in inventory, declines in median list prices and the fact that mortgage rates remain lower year-over-year.
The risk, Smith said, is that “this progress gets cut short.”
“Uncertainty around the Iran conflict and choppy rate movements, with borrowing costs already drifting back above 6.3% in the first weeks of April, could trigger a repeat of last spring’s pattern: a market that showed early promise before buyer hesitation pulled activity back,” he continued.
