The economy has seen numerous challenges over the past few months, from a soft but improving labor market to high inflation. The latter, largely attributed to the ongoing U.S.-Iran War and resulting energy price spikes, has also driven mortgage rates upward, and the Federal Reserve has signaled willingness to increase interest rates if inflation continues to rise.
Per the latest findings from the nonprofit The Conference Board, leading economic indicators improved fractionally as of April. Part of this increase was driven by a rise in building permits, as well as a rebound in stock prices, according to Conference Board Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators Justyna Zabinska-La Monica.
The Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose by 0.1% month-over-month in April, coming in at 97.4 (measured against 2016, which is given a 100 rating). Over the past six months, the index contracted by 0.7%, a smaller contraction than seen in the preceding six month period (1% from April to October 2025).
As the six month trend for the LEI remains in the negative, this suggests a “fragile” economic outlook. However, the Conference Board reports that an outright recession still “remains unlikely.”
“The leading index rose in two of the past three months, but the gains did not offset the steep fall registered in March. As a result, the LEI’s six- and twelve-month growth rates were negative, signaling fragile economic conditions ahead. Strong investment in AI infrastructure, data centers and energy production likely will have a positive impact on growth and sustain business spending, but may only partially offset weakness on the consumer side,” said Zabinska-La Monica.
Looking forward, Zabinska-La Monica said that: “Higher gasoline and energy costs—paired with weak hiring—will likely erode household purchasing power in the months ahead, particularly for lower- and middle-income consumers. The Conference Board is currently projecting 1.7% y/y GDP growth in 2026, revised up slightly from last update of 1.6%.”
The Coincident Economic Index, measuring current economic conditions, increased by 0.3% in April, compared to an unchanged reading in March. Over six months, the index increased by 0.8%, a “dramatic increase” compared to a 0.1% contraction in the six months before that.
The Lagging Economic Index, a backwards looking index, rose by 0.4% in April, compared to a 0.3% rise in March. Six month growth was also positive at 0.8%.
For the full Conference Board update, click here.
