Nonprofit research organization The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S.—which provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading—increased slightly by 0.1% in May to 99.3, following a 0.2% increase in April, with plenty of uncertainty still around the future.
After these two consecutive increases, the LEI is down just 0.3% over the six months between November 2025 and May 2026, a much smaller rate of decline than its 1.3% contraction over the previous six months (May to November 2025).
“The Leading Index for the U.S. increased slightly in May, fueled entirely by positive contributions from financial components, especially stock prices and the interest rate spread,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board.
Despite two consecutive monthly increases, the LEI’s six- and 12-month growth rates were still negative, suggesting slower economic expansion ahead.
“Consumers are feeling squeezed because everyday costs—especially gas and energy—are rising faster than their incomes, leaving many households with less money available for things like travel, restaurants, entertainment and shopping,” said Zabinska-La Monica. “The good news is that businesses are spending heavily on AI, data centers and new technology, helping to keep the economy growing, while consumers pull back spending. The overall job market is expected to stay fairly healthy in 2026, but economic growth will be weaker than in recent years.”
Housing economists have blamed uncertainty related to geopolitics and trade policy for stymieing an already sluggish housing market over the last several months, and mortgage rates remain high at least partially due to those same factors—the war against Iran, and up-and-down tariffs.
The Conference Board is currently anticipating 1.8% annual GDP growth in 2026, down somewhat from 2.1% in 2025.
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.2% in May to 114.6, after a marginal increase of 0.1% in April. Overall, the CEI expanded by 0.6% over the six months between November 2025 and May 2026, an improvement from its growth of 0.2% over the previous six months.
The CEI’s four component indicators—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales and industrial production—are included among the data used to determine recessions in the U.S. All components of the CEI made positive contributions in May.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) for the U.S. dipped by 0.1% to 120.5 in May, after a 0.5% increase in April. However, the LAG’s six-month change was firmly in positive territory at 0.9% growth between November 2025 and May 2026, up from being flat over the previous six months (May to November 2025).
