Developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, a new homeownership measure—the homeowners-to-population ratio (HPOP)—aims to provide an alternative to better reflect the share of adults who are homeowners, as the path to the American Dream for young people remains uncertain.
In a July 15 release, economists Erik Hembre, Maxine Xu and Ben Horowitz introduced HPOP, which divides the total number of adult homeowners by the total adult population, drawing on U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) data.
Using this new measure, the U.S. homeownership rate is at 53%, compared to the commonly cited data point on homeownership—the owner-occupancy rate—which is at 65%.
The authors don’t argue that owner-occupancy rates should be retired. The approach remains useful for tax policy and for questions that are genuinely about housing units rather than people, they write.
But for questions about wealth-building, household formation and who is actually on the ownership ladder, HPOP identifies a population standard reporting misses—adults who are likely paying something toward housing but aren’t counted as either renters or owners.
The distinction is that the traditional figure measures housing units, not people. It tells you how many occupied homes have an owner living in them—not how many adults own the home they live in.
The 12-point gap comes largely from adults the owner-occupancy rate doesn’t classify at all. Roughly 13.9% of American adults live in owner-occupied housing without owning it, including adult children living with parents; aging parents living with adult children, siblings, cousins, friends and roommates—a group that has been “misrepresented” as homeowners in other data.
The owner-occupancy rate also excludes anyone living in group quarters, such as college dorms, nursing homes and correctional facilities.
The researchers illustrate the difference with a hypothetical five-home cul-de-sac. Four of the five units are owner-occupied, producing an 80% owner-occupancy rate, but only seven of the 14 adults living on the street own the home they live in—an HPOP of 50%, a 30% difference.
Young adults
The measure changes the picture most for younger buyers. Owner-occupancy rates by age are assigned based on the age of the household head, and only about a third of adults under 35 are household heads, meaning most young adults aren’t reflected in the calculation at all.
The owner-occupancy rate for households headed by adults under 35 was 37% in 2024. Under the new HPOP, only 22% of adults under 35 own their homes.
That perspective shines an even harsher light on the difficulties young people are facing when seeking to become homeowners. The researchers claim HPOP can help researchers understand the long-term home purchase trajectory of buyers—particularly Gen Z and millennials.
“Compared to young adults who move out sooner, are these young adults more likely to become homeowners, or do they invest in education or housing differently as they age?” they ask. “The HPOP enables such explorations.”
Affordability
According to the Minneapolis Fed’s data, every state has a lower HPOP than owner-occupancy rate, but the size of the gap tracks closely with housing costs, measured in the analysis by rent-to-income ratio.
Hawaii, nearly the least affordable state by that measure, has the widest gap in the country at 18.9 percentage points—61.6% owner-occupancy against a 42.7% HPOP. North Dakota, the most affordable state, has the narrowest gap at 3.9 points, and only 10% of its young adults live with a parent, compared to 30% nationally.
California (with a 55.9% owner-occupancy rate versus 41.2% HPOP), New York (54.3% owner-occupancy rate versus 43.3% HPOP) and Nevada (60% owner-occupancy rate versus 46.4% HPOP) all show double-digit gaps.
This shows that when housing gets expensive, more adults double up, and doubling up doesn’t reduce the number of owner-occupied homes—it just adds non-owners to them.
The Minneapolis Fed has published HPOP estimates for the nation, all 50 states and every metropolitan statistical area for 2006 through 2024, with breakdowns by age, race and ethnicity, and marital status.
To read the report and explore HPOP data, click here.
