Young adult homeownership rates are at risk of declining unless the U.S. population grows, according to an analysis by Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS). U.S. population growth, however, may not be able to provide the requisite pipeline of new homebuying young adults due to a smaller Gen Alpha birth cohort and declining immigration.
JCHS’ 2025 tabulation of Census Bureau data puts Gen Z at around 68.7 million people, 9.1 million more than Gen Alpha’s 59.6 million. A substantial number of that 68.7 million figure—around 7 million between 2010 and 2025—represents immigrant Zoomers.
Gen Alpha, on the other hand, will likely see their ranks reduced by sharply declining immigration. Immigration has already fallen from 2.7 million in 2024 to 1.3 million in 2025, with the Census Bureau projecting a further net international migration drop to 321,000 people in 2026, according to JCHS.
Immigrants, whose populations tend to skew young, can be an important source of young adult homebuyers. Immigrants are also an important source of homebuyers in general: It is estimated, for example, that households headed by immigrants accounted for roughly three quarters of housing demand growth since 2010.
This is disheartening news for members of Gen Z and Gen Alpha, with Gen Z already battered by affordability struggles. Rising rent, a slow labor market, depleted pandemic-era cash savings and the reactivation of federal student loan payments in 2023 worked together to bring the young adult headship rate (the share of adults heading a household and an important component of household growth) down to 32.7% in 2024 from 33.3% in 2023.
While this may not seem like a staggeringly high drop in young adult headship rates, it is still a new data point in a potentially concerning long-term trend. According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, half of all Americans aged 25 to 34 in 1980 were the head of a household. Though the JCHS report uses the 18 to 34 age bracket rather than 25 to 34, it is clear that young adults today are much less likely to have a household and thus also much less likely to own homes.
In the context of the post-pandemic market, though, the 2024 trend represents a reversal of young adult headship rates from 2019 to 2023, which benefited from affordability-boosting measures like a pause on federal student loan payments, rising incomes and pandemic-era cash savings.
Now that headship rates are down due to affordability issues, JCHS’ analysis identifies population growth—especially population growth from immigration—as our next best hope. Looking at the positive, though, demographic headwinds have yet to fully arrive. Gen Z (largely defined as people born between 1997 and 2010) has only recently begun entering the housing market, and Gen Alpha (born between 2010 and 2024) won’t be a factor in the housing market for decades.
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