Consumer confidence fell to 101.3 in April, down from 104 in March and the lowest recorded reading since July 2022, according to the latest data from The Conference Board.
The Consumer Confidence Index details consumer attitudes, buying intentions, vacation plans and consumer expectations for inflation, stock prices and interest rates to determine business conditions. The April survey was fielded from April 3—nearly three weeks after the bank failures in the United States—to April 19.
“While consumers’ relatively favorable assessment of the current business environment improved somewhat in April, their expectations fell and remain below the level which often signals a recession looming in the short term,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director, Economics at The Conference Board. “Consumers became more pessimistic about the outlook for both business conditions and labor markets. Compared to last month, fewer households expect business conditions to improve and more expect worsening of conditions in the next six months. They also expect fewer jobs to be available over the short term. April’s decline in consumer confidence reflects particular deterioration in expectations for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over.”
The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—increased to 151.1 from 148.9 last month. For current business conditions, 18.8% of consumers said they were “good,” same as last month.
However, 18.1% said business conditions were “bad,” down from 19.3%. For the labor market, 48.4% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” (up from 47.9%), while 11.1% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get” (down from 11.4%).
The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions—fell to 68.1 (1985 = 100) from 74. The Expectations Index has now remained below 80 (the level associated with a recession) every month since February 2022, with the exception of a brief uptick in December 2022.
As for consumers’ short-term business conditions outlook, 13.5% expect business conditions to improve (down from 16.4%), and 21.5% expect conditions to worsen (up from 19.2%). For the labor market outlook, 12.5% of consumers expect more jobs to be available (down from 15.5%), and 21% anticipate fewer jobs (up from 20.5%). For short-term income prospects, 15.7% of consumers expect their incomes to increase (down from 16.2%), and 11.6% expect a decrease (down from 13.8%).
“April’s results show consumer inflation expectations over the next 12 months remain essentially unchanged from March at 6.2%—although that level is down substantially from the peak of 7.9% reached last year, it is still elevated,” continued Ozyildirim. “Overall purchasing plans for homes, autos, appliances and vacations all pulled back in April, a signal that consumers may be economizing amid growing pessimism.”
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