The latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, tracking home price data changes in August 2023, shows the same result it has for the last six months: home prices are going up. After steadily declining since early 2022, home prices (and the index) reversed course in mid 2023—and have been on an upward curve ever since.
On a national level, home prices increased by 2.6% year-over-year and 0.43% month-over-month in August. Case-Shiller, which surveys 20 major metro areas in total, also employs 10-city and 20-city indices of price gains. These changed 3% and 2.2%, respectively, year-over-year. Looking at the raw data of these metro areas, 13 out of the 20 showed price increases.
Metropolitan area breakdown:
Of the 20 metro areas the Case-Shiller index covers, price changes (both monthly from July to August 2023 and yearly from August 2022 to 2023) were as follows:
Atlanta, Georgia
Monthly: +0.8%
Yearly: +3.4%
Boston, Massachusetts
Monthly: +0.6%
Yearly: +3.1%
Charlotte, North Carolina
Monthly: +0.8%
Yearly: +3%
Chicago, Illinois
Monthly: None
Yearly: +5%
Cleveland, Ohio
Monthly: -0.2%
Yearly: +3.9%
Dallas, Texas
Monthly: -0.2%
Yearly: -1.7%
Denver, Colorado
Monthly: -0.1%
Yearly: -0.6%
Detroit, Michigan
Monthly: +0.8%
Yearly: +4.8%
Las Vegas, Nevada
Monthly: +1.1%
Yearly: -4.9%
Los Angeles, California
Monthly: +0.5%
Yearly: +3.2%%
Miami, Florida
Monthly: +1.2%
Yearly: +3.3%
Minneapolis, Minnesota
Monthly: -0.1%
Yearly: +1.9%
New York City, New York
Monthly: +0.5%
Yearly: +5%
Phoenix, Arizona
Monthly: +0.7%
Yearly: -3.9%
Portland, Oregon
Monthly: -0.1%
Yearly: -1.5%
San Diego, California
Monthly: +0.6%
Yearly: +4.1%
San Francisco, California
Monthly: -0.5%
Yearly: -2.5%
Seattle, Washington
Monthly: +0.2%
Yearly: -1.5%
Tampa, Florida
Monthly: +0.4%
Yearly: None
Washington, D.C.
Monthly: -0.1%
Yearly: +3.4%
Expert opinions
Any Case-Shiller Index update attracts a plurality of comments from real estate economists and pundits; there’s little more essential to the market than home prices. For these latest findings, the experts generally agree that they are indicative of a lagging market (citing other recent trends such as, for instance, declining existing-home sales), caused by factors from insufficient inventory to mortgage rates rising like prices.
Experts and their commentary (condensed for brevity and clarity) are cited below:
Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist of CoreLogic:
“Although housing prices have increased significantly this year, climbing 5% from the early-year low, higher mortgage rates and seasonal trends will slow further monthly gains—with some possible declines in winter months. Nevertheless, the year-to-date gains indicate that growth will pick up through the end of 2023 compared to last year’s slump during this time period.”
Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist of Bright MLS:
“Home prices continue to rise even with higher mortgage rates because inventory is still low. However, affordability is becoming a bigger challenge, particularly for first-time homebuyers. The affordability challenge is being exacerbated by persistently higher mortgage rates. Rates are now more than double what they were in March 2022 when the Federal Reserve began hiking rates to tackle fast-rising inflation. The monthly payment for a typical homebuyer is now $1,000 more than it was in March 2022.
More and more prospective first-time homebuyers are being forced out of the market—or at the very least are having to wait. There are no signs that home prices are going to drop substantially, and no one wants home prices to crash. But it is important for home prices to stay in better alignment with household incomes to promote a healthy housing market and to ensure a broad range of individuals and families have access to homeownership.
Mortgage rates are just one part of the affordability story. The bigger issue is that there has simply been too little housing construction to keep up with demand. Calls for the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates is understandable but the focus should be on the supply side. Without more housing, affordability is going to remain a challenge for the foreseeable future.”
Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at realtor.com®:
“Today’s S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index showed that buyer demand continued to outmatch housing supply through the end of the summer, keeping upward pressure on home prices. Existing-home sales continued to fall in August as limited inventory kept prices relatively high, sending many buyers to look for affordability in the new-home market. However, the uptick in mortgage rates made buyers reconsider and new home sales fell in August as builders and home shoppers took a beat to adjust their expectations.
Despite a drop in buyer activity, low for-sale inventory kept competition fierce in many areas, which propped up home prices. Though purchasing a home remains out of reach for many households, the rental market offers a glimmer of hope. Rent prices fell for the fifth consecutive month in September as multi-family construction entered the market.”
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