Data released Dec. 26 for October 2023 shows that 11 of the 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month home-price increases. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.8% annual change for the month, up from a 4% change in September.
The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 5.7%, up from a 4.8% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.9%, up from a 3.9% increase the previous month. Detroit reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 8.1% increase in October, followed again by San Diego with a 7.2% increase. Portland fell 0.6% and remained the only city reporting lower prices in October versus a year ago.
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and10-City Composite, posted 0.2% month-over-month increases in October, while the 20-City composite posted 0.1% increase.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index, the 10-City and 20-City Composites each posted month-over-month increases of 0.6%.
“U.S. home prices accelerated at their fastest annual rate of the year in October,” said Brian D. Luke, head of commodities, Real and Digital Assets at S&P DJI. “Our National Composite rose by 0.2% in October, marking nine consecutive monthly gains and the strongest national growth rate since 2022.”
The numbers indicate that prices have risen due to low inventory, forcing people wanting to buy to pay whatever it takes to secure a home. With mortgage rates dropping the last few months, 2024 could see a continuation of high prices unless more homes come on the market.
Bright MLS Chief Economist Dr. Lisa Sturtevant stated that “the Index showed that rising mortgage rates did not quell home price growth this fall. Home prices dipped slightly earlier this year but have been rising steadily since July. The persistent price growth reflects strong consumer demand and very low inventory. Mortgage rates hit a 23-year high in early November, but we should expect that next month’s Case-Shiller report to continue to show prices rising.
“Mortgage rates have been falling in recent weeks and are expected to fall further in 2024. Those lower rates will bring more buyers into the market, but they will also bring more sellers. As a result, home prices should rise modestly or be stable in most markets in 2024.”
“(The Index) showed the persistence of home prices amid limited inventory even in the face of lower sales activity,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for realtor.com. “Although price growth decelerated month-over-month, the year-over-year gains were larger than in September. Shoppers who could successfully navigate rising costs were likely well-qualified, and amid limited inventory and a sense that mortgage rates might continue to rise, pushed home prices higher.”
“Each of our 10-city, 20-city and National Index remain at all-time highs, with 8 of 20 cities registering all-time highs,” noted Luke. “While Portland remains slightly down compared to last year’s gains, Phoenix and Las Vegas have flipped to year-over-year gains. The Midwest and the Northeast region are fastest growing markets, while the Southwest and West regions have lagged other regions for over a year. A solid, if unspectacular report, this month’s index reflects a rising tide across nearly all markets.
“Home prices leaned into the highest mortgage rates recorded in this market cycle and continued to push higher. With mortgage rates easing and the Federal Reserve guiding toward a slightly more accommodative stance, homeowners may be poised to see more appreciation.
“We are experiencing broad-based home-price appreciation across the country, with steady gains seen in 19 of 20 cities. This month’s report reflects trendline growth compared to historical returns and little disparity among cities and regions,” Luke concluded.
| Cities | Change from last year |
| Atlanta | 5.3% |
| Boston | 6.6% |
| Charlotte | 6% |
| Chicago | 6.9% |
| Cleveland | 6.4% |
| Dallas | 1.2% |
| Denver | 1.6% |
| Detroit | 8.1% |
| Las Vegas | 0.1% |
| Los Angeles | 6.1% |
| Miami | 6.7% |
| Minneapolis | 2.8% |
| New York | 7% |
| Phoenix | 0.9% |
| Portland | -0.6% |
| San Diego | 7.2% |
| San Francisco | 1.6% |
| Seattle | 1.5% |
| Tampa | 2.3% |
| Washington | 3.4% |
| Composite-20 | 4.9% |
