Without an end in sight for the government shutdown, consumer sentiment is reflecting that uncertainty, according to the latest data from the University of Michigan.
The preliminary results for the Index of Consumer Sentiment came in at 50.3, down 6.2% from October’s reading of 53.6. Year-over-year, there was a 29.9% drop from 71.8 in November 2024.
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu noted that this drop in consumer sentiment was led by a 17% drop in current personal finances and an 11% decline in year-ahead expected business conditions.
“With the federal government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy,” Hsu said. “This month’s decline in sentiment was widespread throughout the population, seen across age, income and political affiliation.”
She noted one exception: “Consumers with the largest tercile of stock holdings posted a notable 11% increase in sentiment, supported by continued strength in stock markets.”
The Current Economic Conditions Index came in at 52.3, down 10.8% from October’s 58.6 and down 18.2% from the 63.9 in November 2024.
The Index of Consumer Expectations reading came in at 49, down 2.6% from 50.3 in October and down a whopping 36.3% year-over-year, from 76.9.
Year-ahead inflation expectations grew from 4.6% last month to 4.7% this month “and remained well below readings in May in the wake of the initial announcements of major tariff changes,” noted Hsu.
Long-run inflation expectations declined from 3.9% last month to 3.6% in November. Hsu commented that these expectations are now below the midpoint between the readings seen a year ago and the 2025 peak reading from April.
The final November data will be released on Nov. 21.
