While conflict continues to brew in the Middle East, mortgage rates continue to rise due to the war’s effect on oil prices, according to the latest Freddie Mac data.
Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey found that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.38% as of March 26, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 6.22%. While elevated, this is still below the 6.65% rate from a year ago at this time. In addition, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.75%, up from last week when it averaged 5.54%. This was also down year-over-year from 5.89%.
Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, noted that despite “recent rate volatility,” there continue to be “gradual improvements compared to a year ago.”
The “primary driver” behind the rise this week, as put by Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant, remains to be the geopolitical conflict faced in the Middle East.
“Concerns over the war in Iran and its impact on global energy prices have pushed oil toward $100 a barrel, fanning inflation fears and driving the 10-year Treasury yield to its highest levels since last fall,” she explained. “As a result, the ‘psychological’ sub-6% environment we briefly enjoyed in February has been replaced by a more cautious, high-volatility climate.”
Realtor.com® Senior Economist Joel Berner noted, as many economists have been saying, that “rising mortgage rates are a major barrier to what should otherwise be a very favorable spring homebuying season.” He added that even before the war in Iran began, “home sales activity in 2026 has been muted.”
“New home sales had their weakest month in over three years this January and existing home sales were down 1.4% year over year in February,” he continued. “These both occurred while mortgage rates were actually falling earlier in the year, suggesting that buyers were facing a crisis of confidence even before the affordability crunch of rising mortgage rates.”
Berner also noted that given the recent jobs report, calling it “soft,” it is “understandable that buyers are worried about their personal finances.”
“Ultimately, the current upward pressure on mortgage rates, stemming from the war and inflation fears, serves as the primary barrier preventing the spring housing market from capitalizing on otherwise favorable inventory and price conditions,” he continued.
Sturtevant agreed with Berner’s sentiment, adding that if the conflict persists and “limited and energy prices stabilize, we could see rates settle back down toward 6%.”
“However, for now, the rebounding spring homebuying season many had been hoping for is being tempered by these external pressures, leading to a more limited and uncertain market environment,” she concluded.
