The June 2025 edition of the S&P Cotality (formerly known as CoreLogic) Case-Schiller National Home Price NSA Index reports that home prices are slowing down in annual gains at 1.9%, down from the 2.3% rise last month.
The index covers all nine United States census divisions. The 20-City Composite—which measures the real estate value in 20 major metropolitan areas—posted a 2.1% gain from last year, but is down from 2.8% in May.
“Today’s S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed that home price growth continued to slow in June,” said Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant. “This is the slowest pace of home price appreciation in two years.”
Head of Fixed Income Tradables and Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, Nicholas Godec, echoed Sturtevant’s sentiment and described the data as revealing a “noteworthy” pattern this year.
“What makes this deceleration particularly noteworthy is the underlying pattern: The modest 1.9% annual gain masks significant volatility, with the first half of the period showing declining prices (-0.6%) that were more than offset by a 2.5% surge in the most recent six months, suggesting the housing market experienced a meaningful inflection point around the start of 2025,” Godec states in the report.
He notes that for the first time in years, home prices are falling behind inflation. “From June 2024 to June 2025, the Consumer Price Index climbed 2.7%, substantially outpacing the 1.9% gain in national home prices. This reversal is historically significant: During the pandemic surge, home values were climbing at double-digit annual rates that far exceeded inflation, building substantial real wealth for homeowners. Now, American housing wealth has actually declined in inflation-adjusted terms over the past year—a notable erosion that reflects the market’s new equilibrium.”
When examining metropolitan areas, New York stands out with the highest annual gains at a 7% increase in home prices. Chicago and Cleveland follow closely behind with increases at 6.1% and 4.5%, respectively. Tampa experienced the lowest in returns over the past year, dropping 2.4% along with San Francisco and Dallas trailing behind at a loss of 2% and 1%, respectively.
“Tampa’s decline marks the worst performance among all tracked metros, while several Western markets including San Diego (-0.6%) and San Francisco (-2%) have joined the negative column—a remarkable transformation from their earlier boom years,” Godec said.
As Southern inventories climb, most cities in the Northeast and Midwest are seeing growth over both the past month and past year.
Realtor.com® Senior Economist Anthony Smith, noted in a statement that, “While home prices remain higher than one year ago, the pace of appreciation moderated in June. Realtor.com data shows median list prices rose just 1.2% year-over-year, down from 2% in May, while months’ supply ticked up to 4.6, approaching a 10-year high. Inventory gains and longer selling timelines in Sun Belt metros are putting downward pressure on prices, especially in the South and West.”
Regional disparities are likely explained from other factors like employment growth, affordability and demographic changes. Godec states that these factors favor established metros in the Northeast and the Midwest, as opposed to those in the Sun Belt.
Experts remain open-minded as to future home price shifts, but said little growth and even drops would not be surprising given recent trends and outside factors that could impact interest rates and affordability.
“Inventory has continued to rise, surpassing pre-pandemic levels in some markets. As a result, expect the Case-Shiller Home Price Index to show decelerating home price growth and even year-over-year price drops in some markets this fall,” Sturtevant said. “Buyers will have more leverage in many, but not all, markets. Sellers will need to adjust price expectations to reflect the transitioning market.”
“Looking ahead, this housing cycle’s maturation appears to be settling around inflation-parity growth rather than the wealth-building engine of recent years,” Godec said. “While this represents a loss of the extraordinary gains homeowners enjoyed from 2020 – 2022, it may signal a healthier long-term trajectory where housing appreciation aligns more closely with broader economic fundamentals rather than speculative excess.”
For more information, see the full report.
