Mortgage rates moved within expected patterns this week, edging down only slightly as the government shutdown reaches its ninth day. Last week, economists said rates were expected to remain within a tight range during the shutdown unless other unexpected developments emerge.
According to the latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) released by Freddie Mac Thursday, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) returned to an average of 6.30%, a 4-basis-point decline from last week’s average of 6.34%.
“Over the last few weeks, mortgage rates have settled in at their lowest level in about a year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “There is growing evidence that homebuyers are digesting these lower rates and gradually are willing to move forward with buying a home, which is boosting purchase activity.”
Realtor.com Senior Economist Anthony Smith commented, “Despite the decline, rates continue to hover within a narrow band they’ve maintained since mid-September, as markets remain in a holding pattern amid fiscal and monetary uncertainty, including the ongoing government shutdown.”
Smith added that the timing of the shutdown is particularly consequential for housing and monetary policy. “While the Federal Reserve remains operational due to its independent funding, key economic reports, such as inflation, retail sales and jobs data, will be delayed if the disruption continues. This could complicate the Fed’s ability to assess incoming trends and delay clear signals on future rate moves.”
Further Smith noted that for prospective homebuyers, the current holding pattern in rates may offer stability, but broader uncertainty could weigh on consumer sentiment. “Federal workers and contractors in affected metropolitan areas may see housing plans postponed, and mortgage processing may be slowed for loans requiring federal verification or flood insurance tied to the National Flood Insurance Program,” he said, however, noting that if the shutdown is resolved quickly and broader conditions remain stable, “this fall could bring a rare combination of opportunity and breathing room for motivated home shoppers.”
This week:
- The 30-year FRM averaged 6.30% as of October 9, 2025, down from last week when it averaged 6.34%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.32%.
- The 15-year FRM averaged 5.53%, down from last week when it averaged 5.55%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.41%.
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