Continuing a pattern of small movements expected as the government shutdown continues, rate saw only a slight downward trend this week.
According to the latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®) released by Freddie Mac Thursday, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) slid three basis points to 6.27% from last week’s average of 6.30%.
“Mortgage rates inched down this week and have held relatively steady over the past several weeks,” said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac. “Importantly, homeowners have noticed these consistently lower rates, driving an uptick in refinance activity. Combined with increased housing inventory and slower house price growth, these rates also are creating a more favorable environment for those looking to buy a home.”
Realtor.com Senior Economist Jiayi Xu said a number of developments that could affect the economy are in play right now, including new tariffs on China, the government shutdown and labor market risks.
“On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed concern about downside risks in the labor market but also warned that the slow pass-through of tariffs could begin to resemble persistent inflation,” she said. “Still, Powell noted that as risks become more balanced, monetary policy should gradually move toward a more neutral stance—hinting at the possibility of further rate cuts.”
Xu added that while Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, a primary measure of inflation, is expected to be released before the October (28-29) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting even if the shutdown continues, the prolonged disruption could further complicate the Fed’s decision-making by delaying other key economic reports.
“While mortgage rates are approaching the lower end of 6%, recent survey data show that home purchase sentiment has remained flat. Nationwide, buying power has declined sharply, as home prices and mortgage rates continue to outpace income growth,” said Xu. “As a result, substantial wage gains and improved financial stability will be essential to boost purchase sentiment. However, broader uncertainty from the ongoing government shutdown may further weigh on sentiment—especially in markets with a higher share of federal workers and contractors, who are facing financial strain and concerns over potential layoffs.”
Quick stats:
- The 30-year FRM averaged 6.27% as of October 16, 2025, down from last week when it averaged 6.30%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.44%.
- The 15-year FRM averaged 5.52%, down from last week when it averaged 5.53%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.63%.
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