Nonprofit business research organization The Conference Board released its latest Leading Economic Index (LEI)—which provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading—showing a decline of 0.6% in March 2026, more than reversing its 0.3% increase in February.
Overall, the LEI fell by 1.0% over the six months between September 2025 and March 2026, more than halving the rate of decline of its 2.1% contraction over the previous six-month period (March to September 2025).
“After rising in February, the US LEI pulled back sharply in March, as building permits declined and consumer expectations and stock prices weakened,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager, business cycle indicators, at The Conference Board. “The LEI continues to signal a slowdown in the economy over the coming months, as higher oil prices and supply chain tensions will likely place additional upward pressure on inflation and further reduce consumers’ purchasing power.”
“The labor market, while currently stable, may soften with hiring slowing and unemployment edging higher. Growth will likely remain modest, as weaker consumer spending offsets some strength in business investment and defense-related activity. The Conference Board revised its US GDP growth forecast to well below 2%, down to 1.6% year-over-year for 2026.”
The lower numbers mirror those of recent builder sentiment, as the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index saw builder confidence dip four points to 34 in April, the lowest level seen since September 2025. This also follows an essentially flat reading of only a one-point rise in March (to 38).
NAHB Chairman Bill Owens pointed to “elevated interest rates and growing economic uncertainty” as the reason for a further dip in sentiment. The year started with hopes for housing momentum growth, but risks with respect to the Iran war, energy costs and declines for consumer confidence have slowed the market.”
NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz noted that as oil prices have risen, and gas/diesel prices in tandem, “62% of builders reported suppliers have increased building material costs.” In addition, energy costs have also been increasing, and they account for “approximately 4% of residential construction material input and service costs.”
Additionally, home-price growth has stalled as more than half of metros see year-over-year declines.
The 10 components of the LEI for the U.S. are:
- Average weekly hours in manufacturing
- Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
- Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials
- ISM Index of New Orders
- Manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
- Building permits for new private housing units
- S&P 500 Index of Stock Prices
- Leading Credit Index
- Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate)
- Average consumer expectations for business conditions
