The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, the flagship measure of U.S. home prices, recorded a 1.5% annual gain for June 2026, up from a 1.2% rise in the previous month.
But for the 13th consecutive month, U.S. home values fell in real terms, as June’s 3.5% inflation ran roughly two percentage points above the 1.5% home-price gain. A nearly nine percentage point gap separated June’s strongest market (Chicago +6.9% YoY) and its weakest (Seattle -2.0% YoY), underscoring a stark regional divergence in home price trends.
“Homeowners and renters alike breathed a sigh of relief in June,” said Rebecca Kaufman, associate director of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “While home prices continue to decline in real terms, lower inflation and firmer nominal home price growth in June helped slow that pace of erosion.”
The Case-Shiller index is a lagging report, meaning the data reflects price appreciation from earlier in the summer.
For the fourth consecutive month, Chicago led all metros with a 6.9% annual increase in June, followed by New York (4.8%) and Cleveland (4.1%), Kaufman noted.
Seattle recorded the largest annual decline at 2.0%, followed by Las Vegas (-1.9%) and Denver (-1.2%). This geographic divide reflects a years-long trend, with housing markets in the Northeast and Midwest regaining strength while many Western and Sun Belt markets soften.
“Seasonal factors continue to support monthly price growth,” Kaufman continued. “On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, both the U.S. National Index and the 20-City Composite gained 0.4% month over month in June. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index and the 20-City Composite gained 0.1% and 0.3% month over month in June, respectively. Because June typically falls near the peak of the homebuying season, price appreciation often moderates and market activity cools in the months ahead.
“The housing market remains under pressure, with 30-year mortgage rates holding near 6.5% in June. As financing costs are kept high for prospective buyers, current homeowners remain reluctant to give up the low mortgage rates secured in prior years.”
Realtor.com® Senior Economist Anthony Smith likely wasn’t surprised by the numbers. Previous to Case-Shiller being released, he noted that mortgage rates climbed from the low 6% range in early spring past 6.5% as renewed geopolitical tensions tied to the Iran conflict pushed energy prices and Treasury yields higher.
“Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.49% in June, its highest level since last August, keeping pressure on affordability even as the market showed some resilience,” he said. “Existing-home sales notched a 4th straight month of annual gains through July, with June’s pace revised up to 4.13 million before easing to 4.06 million in July.”
Looking ahead, he added, the rate backdrop has only gotten more challenging since June.
“The modest acceleration in home prices seen in May may be harder to sustain into the back half of summer,” he said. “Even so, real home values have now declined for 12 consecutive months, with May’s 4.2% inflation running roughly three percentage points ahead of nominal price growth, keeping the market’s underlying softness intact even as headline year-over-year figures tick higher.”
