The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, the flagship measure of U.S. home prices, recorded a 1.9% annual gain for July 2026, up from a 1.6% rise in the previous month. Home values fell in real terms for the 14th consecutive month, as July’s 3.4% inflation ran roughly 1.5 percentage points above the 1.9% home price gain.
“While home prices continued to decline in real terms in July 2026, slightly lower inflation and stronger nominal home price appreciation helped narrow the gap,” said Rebecca Kaufman, associate director of commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “For the fifth consecutive month, Chicago led all metros with a 6.9% annual gain in July, followed by New York (5.8%) and Cleveland (4.2%). Meanwhile, Seattle posted the largest annual decline for the second consecutive month, falling 1.6%, followed by Las Vegas (-1.3%) and Denver (-1.1%).
Kaufman noted that the years-long East-West divide persists, with six out of the eight Eastern metropolitan markets recording greater year-over-year changes in July versus June, compared with just two of the eight Western metropolitan markets.
“In a notable departure from typical seasonal patterns, the non-seasonally adjusted National and Composite indices recorded monthly gains smaller than their seasonally adjusted counterparts,” she said. “On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. National and 10-City Composite Indices rose 0.12% and 0.03% month over month, respectively. On a seasonally adjusted basis, they increased 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. This suggests seasonal factors weighed heavily on home prices in July.”
Although inflation remained elevated at 3.4%, much of the increase was concentrated in energy, with energy and gasoline prices rising 14.7% and 24.6%, respectively,” she concluded. “By contrast, core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose only 2.5% year over year. This distinction is important because persistent inflation in shelter and other core categories tends to have a more direct impact on housing affordability than energy-driven price fluctuations.”
