With less than three weeks until the midterms, recent data released on a constitutional amendment in Florida known as Amendment 3, a housing affordability relief measure that would raise the property tax exemption for residents of the Sunshine State, is not showing a solid case for either passing or failing.
Amendment 3, championed by the state Realtor® association, would increase Florida’s homestead exemption for non-school property taxes from its current level to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, with annual adjustments for inflation beginning in 2029—significantly reducing property taxes for many homeowners.
The additional exemption would not apply to school district property taxes. Sixty percent of voters have to check yes in order for the amendment to pass.
The amendment, introduced to the Florida state legislature this past June by state Rep. Toby Overdorf (R-85) was created as a tool for addressing the housing affordability crisis. Florida Realtors®, the state’s largest association, has been the primary group bankrolling a Vote Yes on 3 campaign, spending $18 million on the effort supporting the amendment.
“Affordability is on the forefront for every Floridian, and they need meaningful relief,” said Chuck Bonfiglio Jr., 2026 president of Florida Realtors® when the campaign launched in early September. “We’ve spent years working to help people buy homes. But buying the home is only half the challenge. We also need to make sure families can afford to keep the homes they worked so hard to purchase.”
The proposal comes as both states and the federal government have sought ways to address the complex, interrelated factors that impact housing affordability. From down payment assistance to deregulation, many in real estate—who might disagree on specific approaches—have still celebrated that lawmakers are rallying around the issue all over the country.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis told local media that the amendment would entirely eliminate property taxes for 60% of homeowners in the state, although that figure was disputed by some independent analysts.
Florida’s amendment would also lower the cap on annual property-tax assessment increases for non-homestead property, including rental and commercial property, from 10% to 5%.
“It also has a reduction on the cap for taxes on non homestead properties, meaning commercial and rental properties,” said Florida Realtors® CEO Margy Grant in a recent interview for Tampa Bay’s WFLA News Channel 8. Grant added that this tax cap provides predictability that could convince landlords to keep rent steady or even reduce monthly rent bills for tenants.
Back and forth
Opponents of the amendment are concerned that the loss of property tax funds would cause reductions in local government services, such as law enforcement and other public safety services, hospitals and roads and transportation.
The Florida Policy Institute estimates that over two years, more than $460 million of local funding for law enforcement and other public safety agencies alone would be at risk, and local governments and tax districts would lose $12 billion in revenue on a recurring basis.
But DeSantis, a strong supporter of the amendment, says Florida can manage with less. According to a recent article in MarketWatch, he has said that local governments would still be getting more property-tax revenue compared to pre-pandemic years if the amendment passes, and rural and small counties could get state assistance.
Previously, Joel Berner, Realtor.com® senior economist, has said if property taxes were eliminated outright on owner-occupied homes in Florida (something DeSantis at one point proposed), property values in the state would immediately jump by about 7% to 9%—but only at the expense of future first-time buyers.
“It would be a boon to existing property owners,” said Berner. “But this measure would disproportionately benefit wealthy Floridians at the expense of those who don’t own homes, and would make it even harder to break into homeownership because of the increased prices.”
Recent polling isn’t really clarifying the issue. A poll released Oct. 7 by NBC 6 South Florida in Miami and conducted by polling and strategy firm Mason-Dixon, found Amendment 3 is supported by 55% of voters, with 26% opposed and 19% undecided. The poll showed Democrats in Florida oppose the measure 43% to 36%, with 21% undecided, while Republicans support it 74% to 13%, with 13% undecided. Independent voters support it 43% to 29%, with 28% undecided.
In an article published Oct. 13 in the South Florida Sun Sentinel, three polls last week show very different outcomes for Amendment 3: One passing narrowly with 63% support; one falling short of passage with 55% support and one failing overwhelmingly with 42% support.
“It’s probably going to be close,” said Aubrey Jewett, a political scientist at the University of Central Florida in the Sun Sentinel article. “I can make a case logically for it to pass, and I can also make a case logically that it won’t. 60% is a pretty significant threshold.”
Florida Realtors® president Bonfiglio has said the measure is an important immediate step the state can take toward addressing ongoing housing affordability issues.
“Floridians need a change,” Bonfiglio said as part of the Vote Yes for 3 campaign launch. “This is an opportunity to provide meaningful relief now, while continuing the broader conversation around property taxes.”
If approved, the amendment would take effect Jan. 1, 2027.
