The common perception associated with millennials is that they live in cities and rent rather than put down roots and buy. But how much truth is there to this notion, and how much is stereotype?
That’s what the latest study from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing aims to answer, titled “Back to the Suburbs? Millennial Residential Locations From the Great Recession to the Pandemic.” The report was a collaboration between Harvard’s own Whitney Airgood-Obrycki and Riordan Frost and Hyojung Lee, a professor at Seoul National University. Lee presented the findings during a video webinar on Friday, October 27, 2023.
For context, the report focuses on data from 2011 to 2021, the decade that opened with the tail-end of the Great Recession and closed with the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Millennials are defined as those born from 1977 to 1996.
Sectors of metropolitan areas are defined as:
- Central urban
- Peripheral urban
- Central suburban
- Peripheral suburban
They’re grouped based on geographic centrality but also density; central urban neighborhoods are the center of the population center and contain at least 30% of residents in a packed circular shape, while peripheral urban areas are the next layer outward surrounding the central area, etc.
So, which ones are millennials choosing? According to the report, it’s the peripheral suburban neighborhoods; Professor Lee notes, with some disappointment, that rather than millennials charting a different path than previous generations and preferring urban living, they’re just like baby boomers and Gen Xers. It just took them longer to get to the suburbs due to financial setbacks their generation has suffered (see the aforementioned recession and pandemic).
For instance, in the 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs), the central urban area lost 19.1% of millennial residents from 2011 to 2021. The peripheral suburban areas of these MSAs? They saw a 30.3% influx of millennial residents. The report doesn’t track how millennials of different races are moving, but it does note that the areas losing millennials are statistically more diverse.
What sets suburbs apart from urban areas in terms of features? The report answers with three key features: single-family homes, homeownership and driving commutes (i.e., individual, not public transportation). While “millennial” is sometimes treated as synonymous with “young person,” that becomes less true by the day—the oldest ones are in their forties and have families of their own. Ergo, it makes sense that they want to live in single-family homes and are going where those homes are available.
Part of the report’s agenda is to track how millennials are reshaping the neighborhoods they’ve been moving to. Cultural amenities—such as bars, restaurants, art centers, etc.—are described as the main enduring attraction to urban living for millennials. If more and more move to the suburbs, it makes sense that such amenities will find their way into those areas as well.
If you’re selling to millennial buyers, take stock of such amenities in your neighborhood and highlight them when working with clients.
Watch the full video here.
