The impacts of tariffs, coupled with lower levels of consumer sentiment, are putting downward pressure on Leading Economic Indicators, according to the latest data from The Conference Board.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for June fell by 0.3% to 98.8 (100 is equal to the economic level seen in 2016), following no change seen in May.
Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of Business Cycle Indicators at The Conference Board, noted that this is the second month where “the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI.”
“But this was not enough to offset still very low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing and a third consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance,” she continued.
As of June, the LEI has fallen 2.8% over the first half of 2025, a much faster rate of decline than the 1.3% fall over the second half of 2024. Zabinska-La Monica had noted this as well, adding that “the diffusion index over the past six months remained below 50, triggering the recession signal for a third consecutive month.”
The Coincident Economic Index® rose by 0.3% to 115.1, after seeing no change in April and May. The index is now up by 0.8% over the first half of 2025, but down slightly from the 1% growth over the previous six months. All four components—payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—improved in June.
The Lagging Economic Index® remained unchanged from May’s reading of 119.9 (which was a 0.4% increase at the time). The index is up 1.4% over the first half of 2025, reversing the 0.8% decline seen in the second half of 2024.
From the June data, Zabinska-La Monica said that The Conference Board “does not forecast a recession,” but added that “economic growth is expected to slow substantially in 2025 compared to 2024.”
“Real GDP is projected to grow by 1.6% this year, with the impact of tariffs becoming more apparent in H2 as consumer spending slows due to higher prices,” she continued.
