The jobs report for September numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which was planned for Oct. 2, will not be released due to the federal government shutdown Oct. 1. A statement on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics website reads: “This website is currently not being updated due to the suspension of Federal government services. The last update to the site was Wednesday, October 1, 2025. Updates to the data will start again when the Federal government resumes operations.”
The jobs report will be released after the federal government reopens, but the new release date is unknown and depends on the duration of the shutdown. Following past shutdowns, the BLS has taken time to resume operations and ensure data quality before rescheduling releases.
The jobs data was not likely to be seen as positive for the economy, as the ADP National Employment Report, a measure of private employment in the U.S., noted on Oct. 1 that payrolls at private employers declined by 32,000 jobs last month, signaling the labor market continued to face headwinds in September.
The job loss is another indicator that the labor market is softening. Job growth has slowed this year even as the unemployment rate hasn’t moved up or down significantly. The Federal Reserve last month lowered short-term interest rates by a quarter percentage point, while signaling that more cuts may be on the way, citing weak hiring.
Before the shutdown, Fed members were emphasizing the downside risks related to labor conditions, with most predicting at least one more interest rate cut this year. Mortgage rates fell sharply, almost 30 basis points, in the weeks leading up to the last rate cut in September.
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Oct. 1 told FOX Business Network’s Edward Lawrence that the central bank will look at alternate data sources to consider at its October meeting if upcoming economic data is not released as scheduled due to a potential government shutdown.
“The Bureau of Labor Statistics is the best source of data that we have,” he said. “It pains me that we wouldn’t be getting official statistics at exactly the moment when we’re trying to figure out if the economy is in transition.
“That said, just recently, the Chicago Fed introduced the labor market indicators which takes 11 different data sources, some of which are the official data but many of which are private sector, and makes a real-time forecast of what the next unemployment rate would be.
“So we will lean heavily on our hiring-rate estimates, on our layoffs and other separation-rate estimates, and on our nowcast of the unemployment rate. The more you’re covering up one eye or both eyes, it’s tougher to drive. These are the things we’re going to be looking at, and we’re in an environment where even the best data sources are noisier than they were in the old days.”
Realtor.com Senior Economist Jake Krimmel lamented the loss of the jobs report.
“For the Federal Reserve, this report would have been a key input for the October 28-29 FOMC meeting,” he said. “Chair Powell has framed the Fed’s recent 25 bps rate cut as a “risk management” move, balancing upside risks to inflation with downside risks to the labor market. Without fresh data, it becomes harder for the Fed to judge whether to stick or twist.
“But perhaps more importantly–given we are still three weeks out from the next FOMC meeting–it becomes harder for markets to anticipate what will come next. The lack of a central data benchmark means it’s more difficult to read policymakers, which in turn injects uncertainty and volatility into financial markets, and ultimately makes the Fed’s job more challenging.
For housing, the lack of timely labor market data matters in three ways:
An even murkier outlook. The housing market is already under pressure from high mortgage rates, the lock-in effect, and weak demand. A robust and dynamic labor market fuels the housing market’s engine: consumer demand. Without clarity on whether jobs are slowing further, we can’t accurately gauge the headwinds facing the market.
Mortgage rates and policy uncertainty. Labor data feeds directly into Fed decisions, which anchor the 10-year Treasury and, by extension, mortgage rates. Without that benchmark, it’s harder to predict exactly what the Fed will do at its next meeting, with another 25 bps cut, a 50 bps move, or a pause all on the table. That ambiguity can widen spreads and inject volatility into mortgage rates at a moment when stability is needed.
Confidence and sentiment. A strong housing market depends on consumers feeling secure in their jobs and incomes, since consumer confidence mirrors the labor market. Even the perception that the jobs market is sputtering—especially in the absence of definitive data—can further erode already fragile housing demand.
“If the shutdown drags on, more data releases are at risk,” concluded Krimmel. “Until the government starts up again and the figures are released, consensus on the labor market outlook will have to be cobbled together from less familiar and noisier sources.”
