New data from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows applications for both home purchases and refinances fell significantly this week following increased mortgage rates and other market volatility in the wake of the conflict in the Middle East, economists said.
According to the latest Market Composite Index from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)—its measure of mortgage loan activity volume and includes purchases and refinances—decreased 10.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis from last week’s 3.2% increase, for the week ending March 13. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 10% compared with the previous week.
“Mortgage rates continued to move higher, driven by increasing Treasury yields as the conflict in the Middle East kept oil prices elevated, along with the risk of a broader inflationary shock,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist. “Mortgage rates increased across the board, with the 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.30 percent, the highest rate since December 2025.”
Kan also noted that rates were around 20 basis points higher than they were two weeks ago and this caused a reversal in refinance activity, particularly for conventional refinance applications, which decreased 27 percent over the week.
MBA’s Refinance Index decreased 19% from the previous week and was 69% higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% from one week earlier while the unadjusted Purchase Index increased 2% compared with the previous week and was 12% higher than the same week one year ago, according to MBA’s data.
Data shows the refinance share of mortgage activity decreasing to 52.3% of total applications this week from 57.8% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 8.0% of total applications.
Government-backed loan activity was a little more positive for total applications with only slight declines for government refinances, MBA reported.
According to this week’s release, the FHA share of total applications increased to 19.4% from 17.1% the week prior. The VA share of total applications increased to 16.7% from 16.1% the week prior. The USDA share of total applications remained unchanged at 0.4% from the week prior.
“Government refinances also declined but by 5 percent, as FHA rates have not increased quite as rapidly,” noted Kan. “Purchase applications remained steady despite the higher rates, with conventional purchase applications unchanged and growth in both FHA and VA segments. Overall purchase applications remained ahead of last year’s pace, supported by higher inventory and slowing home-price growth in many markets.”
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