The mid-to-late summer housing market appears to be plodding along, as pending activity in July slipped to a low for the year, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).
NAR’s Pending Home Sales report found that sales dipped 2.3% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year in July. This is the second month of decreases—following May’s 5.4% month-over-month dip—and now the lowest level of activity since January 2026.
“The highest mortgage rates of the year hit right in the middle of summer, and that’s pulling back contract signings,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Home prices are at record highs so houses for sale are sitting on the market longer, and fewer buyers are bidding above the asking price than a year ago, though there are large local market variations.”
Realtor.com® Senior Economist Hannah Jones also noted that during the month of July the Iranian conflict returned, “pushing oil prices to their highest level since May and putting upward pressure on mortgage rates and inflation.”
Despite this, Jones said that the July data “doesn’t tell a story of collapse.”
“Asking prices continued to fall for the ninth consecutive month as sellers adjusted to buyer budgets and expectations, and homes spent slightly less time on market than a year ago, the first such annual improvement in over two years,” she explained. “July proved to be a market experiencing a seasonal slowdown rather than an outright collapse.”
The regional picture, which has seen significant divergence, came closer to alignment in July. All four regions saw month-over-month decreases: the Northeast fell 2%, the Midwest 0.7%, the South 2.2% and the West 4.7%. Year-over-year, the Northeast, South and West all saw decreases—0.2%, 3% and 7.1%, respectively—while the Midwest saw an increase of 1.7%.
Getting more local, the largest annual increases among the top 50 metros were seen in:
- Virginia Beach, Virginia (+17.2%)
- San Antonio, Texas (+11.8%)
- Cincinnati, Ohio (+6.2%)
- Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (+3.7%)
- Miami, Florida (+2.4%)
- Austin, Texas (+1.6%)
- Buffalo, New York (+1.3%)
- St. Louis, Missouri (+1.2%)
- Jacksonville, Florida (+1.2%)
- Columbus, Ohio (+0.2%)
Looking ahead, Yun said that potential future gains in the labor market “should bring more buyers into the market, especially if mortgage rates stabilize or decline.” However, that impact would take time to manifest.
“Right now, pending contracts are 30% below their pre-pandemic 2019 level, while payroll employment is 5% above,” he continued. “That gap points to sizable pent-up demand that should be unleashed in the coming years as more supply reaches the market and affordability improves.”
Jones concluded that the late summer market will “likely continue its seasonal drift.”
“Inventory tends to build and price cuts become more common as attention turns toward the school year, which could create real opportunity for buyers still active in the market, particularly if rates find some relief,” she continued.
The “key question” for August, Jones added, is “whether the current slowdown is seasonal or something more lasting.”
“Last summer, price cuts accelerated, pending sales fell, and delistings picked up,” she continued. “So far, July’s data doesn’t show a repeat of that retreat.”
