Existing home sales in July may not shape up to be as strong as the industry wants, looking at the latest pending sales data from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). However, economists are not despairing just yet, as 2026 has proven to be more resilient than years past.
NAR’s Pending Home Sales report saw sales dip 5.4% month-over-month in June, a reversal from May’s 3.8% increase. Year-over-year, however, pending sales are only down a slight 0.3%.
NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun said that the combination of elevated mortgage rates and home prices “are contributing to a tepid housing market that is especially difficult for first-time homebuyers.” While rates are better historically and price growth has continuously decelerated, both indicators do remain higher hurdles than some homebuyers can overcome.
Yun did note, however, that “job gains can help support housing demand.” Job growth in recent months has seen an upward trend as the labor market observed some stabilization.
Realtor.com® Senior Economist Hannah Jones directed attention toward the portal’s 2026 Forecast Midyear Update, which outlined slower normalization in the market than originally anticipated, but predicted medium-term relief in housing affordability.
Continued measured growth in affordability will help to increase sales to a more steady pace, an opinion Jones and other economists have set forward.
In terms of the regional picture, all four regions saw month-over-month declines: the Northeast fell by 3%, the Midwest by 8.9%, the South by 4.1% and the West by 4.7%. While the South and West also saw year-over-year decreases (by 0.9% and 1.1%, respectively), the Northeast and Midwest actually saw increases (of 2.2% and 0.3%, respectively).
The highest year-over-year jumps in pendings were seen in Virginia Beach, Virginia (+15.4%); Sacramento, California (+15.2%); Kansas City, Missouri (+14.4%); Richmond, Virginia (+14%); Buffalo, New York (+12.1%); Austin, Texas (+11.1%); San Francisco, California (+10.7%); Los Angeles, California (+9.6%); Miami, Florida (+9.5%); and St. Louis, Missouri (+9.1%).
As for the coming months, Jones said that the summer market is “poised to remain steadily positive, though quieter than a typical pre-pandemic summer.”
“Notably, June inflation data showed softening price growth, with headline inflation falling to 3.5% and core inflation easing to 2.6%,” she continued. “That softness could open the door to lower mortgage rates, offering some added fuel to the summer housing market.”
